Friday, March 20, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning.

You may have awoken to a vertical ramp over the last two hours and ask yourself if a new QE program was announced. No, as Op-Ex is not only upon us, but the once a quarter super volatile QUAD Witching, expiration of  stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures the market is on a tear hunting down stops.

From no news or catalyst whatsoever, the market is on a ruthless stop hunt to hit any and all stops above the post F_O_M_C highs, volatility runs high on Quad Witching as a general rule, it all just depends where the maximum options expiration damage can be done.

So just a few hours ago on no catalyst, the $USD starts to fall as we expected any way, but not that much...
 5 min chart of $USDX showing the F_O_M_C lows as well.

And this morning's boost in EUR/USD after a quiet overnight session as stops are ruthlessly hunted down.

The reaction in the Index futures...

This actually sets up a nice 3 candle reversal pattern with the Harami in place since yesterday's close, the open higher with a close below yesterday's is the downside reversal confirmation which is also the same set up we were looking for in the Russell 20000 based on its triangle, I'd say we have that now in place no problem, just a matter of looking for the timing.

The closing candle would look like this...

The red candle I drew in is the gap up, and the bottom would be the close or a dark filled in green candle. That's a perfect candlestick reversal and a fulfillment of the IWM set up seen yesterday.

It's going to be a volatile ride, just know why.



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