I'll be spending the rest of the day split between broader market updates and the Week Ahead and any positions I think might be useful right now as yesterday I paused on several as I believed the IWM pop above the sym. triangle was the most probable course of action, which opens up better entries so long as we have good timing confirmation which seems to be falling in to place ever since we passed 2 p.m. with intraday breadth falling apart quickly (TICK).
SPY intraday is at the worst leading negative divegrence of the day, note since 2 pm passed, it has picked up on the downside. I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to overtake Wednesday's intraday highs if the market can hold together internally (TICK/breadth), it didn't earlier and I suspect that was max-pain related.
The Q's are also at a new leading negative divergence on the day.
DIA has been one of the most steady performers (3C perspective) on the day, but still negative.
And the earlier IWM positive divergence that popped it higher has turned to a negative . Note both divergences were in ranges where it is very common to see underlying activity pick up even though from a price point of view, the market looks very dull, just remember VWAP and you'll have an idea as to why this is as it is.
Although I'm not prepared for the broader update, I just couldn't resist giving you a sneak peak of the Risk - On leader, IWM and the next timeframe at 2 mins in to the knee jerk F_O_M_C and since.
Again, NYSE TICK has fallen out of the channel, but it appears there have been some longs willing to chase as we have some TICK readings at +1300, yet very little movement to support those kinds of readings in that area.
The custom SPY TICK histogram with yesterday's late improvement supported intraday by yields and some intraday divergences as we have seen, not to mention the obvious IWM triangle set-up which is what caused me to wait before adding any additional positions. Since we have a light uptrend and a sudden sharp turn to the downside, again 2 p.m. seems to come in to play.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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