A.M. Update

OK, so the market was in a holding pattern to see what the ECB was going to do, which so far has been nothing short of uneventful.

Rates were held in place, the widely anticipated ECB QE program will begin March 9th, even though there's not enough net issuance for the ECB to even buy, but Draghi has always been a talker, I never said a good talker and that's why the half-life of his comments has dropped over the years from that of a Central Bank leader to that of the town crier.

ES looks like this right now and I suspect it's because Draghi has a credibility problem...

ES with a negative divergence in to the Draghi press conference.

And what might be the credibility problem?

Draghi and co. raised 2015 GDP expectations from 1% to 1.5% out of thin air or out of QE and all the wonderful things it will do for Europe despite the fact there aren't enough assets to buy and Draghi is still pleading and telling everyone, even this morning, that this is all good for naught if there aren't structural reforms which he has been talking about for years now. Mr. Draghi, there are no structural reforms, there won't be any structural reforms and there's absolutely nothing you can do about that so you have admitted that QE WILL NOT work without them and you know they aren't coming, how do you get to 1.5% GDP from 1% for 2015?

But that's not even the worst of it. In December the ECB cut inflation forecasts from 1.1% to 0.7%, then in March cut them again to ZERO! Almost DEFLATION and why? Dropping oil prices of course.  2016 was reduced modestly from 1.4 to 1.3.

However in the ECB's/Draghi's opinion, they just took 2015 and left it at 0% and raised 2016 ro 1.5%.

Does Draghi have a crystal ball with regard to OPEC since the inflation forecasts are based on oil prices because he made one heck of a prediction or oversight, 2015 inflation to go from 0% to 1.5% in 2016, that's one exceptional move.

Additionally 2016 GDP was raised 1.9 vs previous of 1.5 and 2017 was added as a new data point at GDP of 2.1%

And Europe's biggest trading partner is China who has already said that this year will be worse than last?

Mr. Draghi's leisure time listening music...

Oh and by the way, Initial Claims just came in at 320k vs 295k consensus, this is now the worst start to the year not only for macro data, but now Claims since 2009, tomorrow is the big one, Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30.

Enjoy the song, it really is appropriate.