Thursday, March 12, 2015

EUR/USD Looks Like it's Not Going to Hold Much Longer

As mentioned in the A.M. Update, the overnight short squeeze in EUR/USD looks not only to be at a total loss of momentum, but looks like it will be coming down soon as the story this morning has been largely FX volatility as the currency wars escalate with 24 Central Bank easing actions globally this year so far (23rd and 24th with Korea and Thailand).

 EUR/USD short squeeze with no 3C confirmation which makes sense on a short squeeze, it's not exactly accumulation. In any case, I suspect the pair will be at parity perhaps even sooner than we might expect reasonably.

Looking at the single currency futures, the $USDX is showing a positive divergence while the EUR/USd above this chart is showing a negative, so we have 2 of 3 confirming the probability of the EUR/USD dropping as the short squeeze ends...

And looking at the Euro futures we have a negative divergence there too, making that 3 of 3 charts all confirming the negative divergence in EUR/USD, I'd say we'll see EUR/USD downside soon since the overnight short squeeze.

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