Monday, March 9, 2015

Futures and VIX

VIX short term futures (VXX / UVXY) which trade opposite the market had shown clear negative divergences late last week along the lines of our Week Ahead forecast of strength early in the week followed by additional weakness, nearly a carbon copy of last week.

However as we have seen the day progress, VIX short term futures have seen near continual improvement, I may not be willing to go so far as to say they are at a pivot right now short term and this week's early strength is finished, but I am a little surprised at how quickly they have improved today.

You've seen VXX  in numerous posts today showing that improvement, in addition to Index futures which look horrible intraday and do look like there's better relative strength in the Q's than the SPY (not saying it's strong strength, just better relatively speaking), I'll also show the actual VIX futures which had been positive several tmes last week on a 1 min intraday which is kind of rare, now they are positive on a 5 min which is more rare and XIV which is the inverse of VXX, it's short short term VIX futures meaning it moves with the market and negative divergences there confirm the VXX positive as well as any negative divergences in the averages/Index futures.
 ES intraday (SPX futures)

NQ intraday (NDX futures), not good looking, but better than ES relatively.

YM / DOW futures intraday

TF / Russell 2000 futures intraday.

5 min VIX futures positive in to a pullback

And XIV confirming VXX intraday, 1 min with a positive from Friday going negative today.

2 min doing the same

3 and 5 min doing the same.

This looks like deterioration a bit faster than I would have anticipated it based on Friday's divergence for strength early this week.

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