Wednesday, March 25, 2015

USO Primary Trend Reversal Updated Stop

Once a base is finished and we have strong confirmation that the second area is stronger than the first as is almost always the case with divergences at a double bottom or a double top, the area we are looking for USO to take out is defined by the Trend Channel, my custom channel that self adjusts to each individual asset's volatility, ATR, recent character and creates a multiple deviation that would define something out of the ordinary or something beyond normal. This is the first indicator I won an award for and with that was dubbed, "Sir Risk Adjuster" at Don Worden's, "Round Table of Knight's Who Think For Themselves".

Yes it sounds silly, but this is the man who first pioneered money flow indicators although he sold his to Wall Street rather than publishing them so someone else got credit for the first money flow indicator, but in fact it was Don Worden's work, he just sold it to the highest bidder which was Wall St. The award came with a nice bottle of Veuve Clicquot, of which I eventually accumulated 6 for different awards in different areas. He wrote a couple of amazing books that are little known and when I first read them as a true believer in Technical Analysis, I was outraged at some of his concepts and thoughts, they didn't follow the mainstream Technical Analysis textbook, but the longer I looked at 3C charts that contradicted everything I knew about Technical Analysis from reading over 100 books on te subject, the more I could see he was right, it's just, well as I often say, "Price is deceiving" and doesn't always reflect what's really happening below the surface. RIP Don.

In any case, here's the updated Trend Channel stop as it is still officially in a downtrend, once it is broken, it will start a new long uptrend stop.
This is a 3-day chart and so far the trend, although it has seen a significant change in its ROC, has not been stopped out which is now at the $18.65 area, so that will have to be broken on a 3-day chart, we aren't far from it.

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