VIX in the mix

I have to make another decision as to the UVXY tracking position (long 2x Vix Short term Futures) which was up yesterday morning at +6% and I made a decision to hold it for the reasons I outlined yesterday which include not wanting to send the wrong message about my analysis / opinion having changed, not wanting to make it appear as if you have to be a day trader (even though +6% for 3 hours of market exposure is a nice gain in anyone's book) and my belief in the position on something longer than an intraday or day to day basis.

Again this morning at close to what was an 8% gain since the idea was put out Monday afternoon, I've decided to hold it again (today it is worth more than yesterday so I think yesterday's decision was a good one).

However it does look like there's some short term VIX movement to slow down the A.M. parabolic drop which has now taken out more than 2 trading weeks of longs and price action in a little more than a day in the SPY.

Here are the very short term intraday charts (I'll get to others), which "seem" like a carbon copy of yesterday, and the reasoning for keeping UVXY open.

 VXX and yesterday's decision whether to take UVXY gains of 6% in 3 hours off the table or leave it open and again today as there's not a higher 3C reading so there's an intraday divergence again like yesterday.

VIX futures are showing the same inrtraday 1 min negative as well...

So if I was making quick 1/2 day trades, I'd take the UVXY nearly 8% gains from this morning, but I'm looking for a larger trend.

These move out to about a 3 min chart, still the intraday timeframes as I consider 5 min where the underlying action is much stronger in terms of signals than the 1-3 min charts.

The yellow area represents not only where we entered UVXY, but a small head fake move/stop run which tend to occur just before a reversal and this concept is fractal whether it be a 3 min chart as above or a 15 min chart or a daily/weekly, the concept is still the same, a head fake move is one of the best timing indications of a price reversal once we have divergences in place of appropriate magnitude.

 This is the inverse or exact opposite of VXX and UVXY which means it trades with the market, intraday it has a positive divergence so there's confirmation on the 1-3 min charts that looks like the market is trying to find a toe-hold again today like yesterday.

 However at the 3 min chart for XIV, it is not only in line with the recent move lower , but divergent as well and things get much worse for the market at the 5 min charts all the way up to 60 min.

VXX 5 min leading positive.

The cleaner trend with less noise and more history, UVXY 10 min with a huge leading positive divegrence. These are the charts I'm considering when making decisions whether to keep or pull VXX/UVXY longs.

The VXX 15 min chart showing the negative from 1/29-2/2 cycle's start and the leading positive now in a huge way. This continues out to 60 min charts. This is the trend I'm interested in, not so much the in and out of trading or scalping, which I am not condemning, just saying I'm more interested in trend at this stage.

More to come...