Thursday, March 19, 2015

VXX / UVXY Trade Set-UpUpdate

As you know I closed the UVXY position for a 10% gain last Friday, Taking UVXY (2x long VXX short Term VIX Futures) off the table for now . I can't recall if it was a LEading Indicators update or another post, but since the VXX (Short Term VIX Futures) chart was so flat, beyond the normal correlation, I wondered if it would see a head fake move; in this case a stop run in which shares can be accumulated on the cheap and in size without anyone even giving it a second thought. Bo one ever wonders who's on the other side of a stop run and why, but it's the easiest, fastest way for smart money to accumulate at a discount in size without raising warning alerts.

Considering my opinion on a possible IWM/TF short term intraday move and the outcome, I think the charts below are very interesting, although they are still telling me to be patient before adding VXX or the 2x leveraged long UVXY long back in the line up. Consider the IWM triangle and most probable head fake based on technical trader's' expectations.

In that scenario, the following VXX charts make a lot of sense as does the trade set up and timing trigger.
 VXX with a notable change in ROC (price) and thus character. Also the flat range that was getting so obvious, I recently wondered if it wasn't too obvious with stops and orders lined up just below support.

 Well judging by the volume at the break of support yesterday, I'd say the middle men were going to be gunning for that area any way as it's a bunch of shares on the cheap with no Iceberg hunting algos on their tails. Based on the IWM 1 min chart and TF shown in the last post (the sym. triangle and what I thought would be most likely to happen), then this "W" base that VXX is working on,  which it needs to work on,  would likely see one more stop run under the "W" base area's support on a smaller move, this would almost certainly be the long entry for VXX/UVXY. I'll be setting price alerts. The two yellow arrows would be the probable outcome I'd be looking for and trade set up, LET THE TRADE COME TO YOU ON YOUR TERMS.

My custom DeMArk inspired Buy/Sell signals show a recent buy, the last two have been accurate as well, although these don't tell you anything about how high the target is, just that a buy signal is in effect and this indicator seems to work best on VIX and VIX derivative ETFs.

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