A.M. Update

It seems that unusual 5 min Futures chart last night in the Daily Wrap may have been foreshadowing some overnight futures weakness.

The late day weakness in the indicators seemed to carry over to the overnight session...

ES negative divergence like all of the averages (posted last night) in to the close continued lower overnight.

The real culprit seems to be the Bank of Japan noting that their 2% inflation target is not on track for this year and will likely occur in 2016 which means in a QE driven market that further easing at the April 30th BOJ meeting is unlikely.

While I don't see the kind of weakness in $USD on 1 min charts,  there's minor strength in the Yen 1 min currently. There are additional and deeper USD/JPY negative divergences since yesterday's started which wasn't big enough to do much more than what we expected, slow it down in a consolidation and let it push to a higher high in the leg which is yet to occur.

Here's the pair with yesterday's and today's worsening divergence. I'll be keeping an eye on the $USD which is forecast to turn soon and continue a larger leg lower, one that may effect its primary trend, as well as the yen for any signs of an impending move in USD/JPY to the downside.

The Yen futures adding to yesterday's 1 min positive divergence...

Yen 1  min with 2 accumulation areas on a short term 1 min chart, there's migration to longer charts like 7 min...

 Yen 7 min from a negative sending it swinging lower here to a new and building 7 min positive (stronger than the 1 min by far).

The $USD 5 min is similar to yesterday...

Still in a leading negative position, but not screaming yet.


Interestingly, ES is coming undone from USD/JPY...

USD/JPY (candlesticks) vs. ES (purple) 1 min, note the weaker relative performance since yesterday's closing weakness in the averages, it has just continued.

Of course we shouldn't assume too much until the opening ramp job runs its course, assuming it does, all of the Index futures are starting out this close to the open in line which is a bit unusual.

I suspect the USD/JPY is falling apart and should have some effect on Index futures, I just don't think it's quite there yet.

We shall see in short order.