Of the three different indications I have been tracking since the April 2 forecast are leading indicators. After taking a quick look at them I see that professional sentiment has diverged negatively. VIX both spot and short term futures are in line and have not been monkey hammered as you might expect. Yields have diverged significantly to the downside, over the last week they have been supportive of the market, today that changed and as you know they act like a magnet for equity prices. More importantly high-yield credit broadly and high-yield corporate credit specifically have turned down. I mentioned high-yield corporate credit and the terrible 3C charts that were pointing toward a turn down in HY Credit rather than the support that it has shown the market over recent weeks and even months.
Last night I said one of the things that I would be looking for in an upside move in prices is a deeper downside move in leading indicators. I will post them in the Daily Wrap, but they too are perfectly on track.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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