The Friday "Week Ahead" forecast was looking for some "noise" in the market to the downside, thus the Very short term , speculative VXX calls from Friday.
There are still charts suggesting we get a bit more upside attempt from the broad market, but this is very difficult to justify taking the risk of introducing long positions and rather looks much better to use to sell in to or short in to. I'll get those updated as best I can.
We also expect a significant counter trend bounce in Treasuries as the "lower for longer" meme has taken hold since payrolls on Friday with March's revision even lower, however the 3C signals for a bounce in treasuries was in place long before the Friday jobs report...something to think about.
Over night the big news was China's central bank, PBoC, cut the 1 year for the 3rd cut in 6 months, by 25 basis point to bring it to +5.1% while boosting the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in an effort to get some traction in what has been a lackluster inflationary and growth environment in the world's second largest economy. The Shanghai Comp gained +3.04%/Hang Seng +.51%, but not nearly what the Comp lost last week.
The big story of today and tomorrow is of course Greece in which today's EuroGroup meeting which "should have" unlocked some $7 billion Euros in aid is still at a standstill with the major players / EuroGroup Finance Ministers essentially saying, "Don't expect anything from today's meeting" while Greece is due to pay the IMF $750 mm euros Tuesday. A payment the Greek government says it will meet, however within the Syriza party, the speaker of Parliament, Nikos Filis has said that the payment to the IMF should be dependent on the results of today's EuroGroup meeting with other officials telling Washington that the payment won't be made, which has been chalked up to a bluff, but underscores the internal strife within Syria who was swept to power in elections on campaign promises of reforming the Troika bailout terms and has completely rolled over on all campaign promises.
For the very near term the weakness expected Monday morning is in place, the very short term VIX calls opened Monday (5/15 expiration) will be closed shortly, I'm just going to be looking for the right time.
We expected TLT to pullback a bit today to widen its base before making a move higher (thus the long TLT position).
And USO looks like a very near term bounce before moving lower as we just pierced support last week.
I'll have an early Update out soon, but I suspect much volatility today will come from the EuroGroup meeting and conflicting headlines out of Greece and the various EU finance ministers.
There are still charts suggesting we get a bit more upside attempt from the broad market, but this is very difficult to justify taking the risk of introducing long positions and rather looks much better to use to sell in to or short in to. I'll get those updated as best I can.
We also expect a significant counter trend bounce in Treasuries as the "lower for longer" meme has taken hold since payrolls on Friday with March's revision even lower, however the 3C signals for a bounce in treasuries was in place long before the Friday jobs report...something to think about.
Over night the big news was China's central bank, PBoC, cut the 1 year for the 3rd cut in 6 months, by 25 basis point to bring it to +5.1% while boosting the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in an effort to get some traction in what has been a lackluster inflationary and growth environment in the world's second largest economy. The Shanghai Comp gained +3.04%/Hang Seng +.51%, but not nearly what the Comp lost last week.
The big story of today and tomorrow is of course Greece in which today's EuroGroup meeting which "should have" unlocked some $7 billion Euros in aid is still at a standstill with the major players / EuroGroup Finance Ministers essentially saying, "Don't expect anything from today's meeting" while Greece is due to pay the IMF $750 mm euros Tuesday. A payment the Greek government says it will meet, however within the Syriza party, the speaker of Parliament, Nikos Filis has said that the payment to the IMF should be dependent on the results of today's EuroGroup meeting with other officials telling Washington that the payment won't be made, which has been chalked up to a bluff, but underscores the internal strife within Syria who was swept to power in elections on campaign promises of reforming the Troika bailout terms and has completely rolled over on all campaign promises.
For the very near term the weakness expected Monday morning is in place, the very short term VIX calls opened Monday (5/15 expiration) will be closed shortly, I'm just going to be looking for the right time.
We expected TLT to pullback a bit today to widen its base before making a move higher (thus the long TLT position).
And USO looks like a very near term bounce before moving lower as we just pierced support last week.
I'll have an early Update out soon, but I suspect much volatility today will come from the EuroGroup meeting and conflicting headlines out of Greece and the various EU finance ministers.
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