Tuesday, May 12, 2015

A.M. Update

It seems global we have had a bond sell-off from Japanese JGB's to German bunds and across Europe  with a certain conspiracy theory as to who is doing the selling which we'll wait for confirmation of conspiracy fact.

US Treasuries sold of as well, but as I posted yesterday, I think this is more destruction to build a base and I suspect we are nearly done.
The selling is across the curve, however this is the 30 year Treasury future intraday and it looks like it's looking for a bottom here.

See yesterday's Multiple Asset Update: Market, VXX, TLT for background or Friday's,  Bond Rally / Swing.

As bonds and Treasuries have been moving together as of recent, Index Futures fell... Again I suspect we are closer to a bottom and will be looking to close VXX calls shortly with some evidence.

 ES 1 min largely in line, I'll be ;looking for this to go positive and likely close the short term VXX call trade.

ES 5 min with a positive divergence like the other Index futures.

7 min with the same.

It seems we have found our "early in the week weakness". Now I'll be looking for the pivot as I still expect a bounce as posted in Friday's week ahead, but I suspect it won't happen instantly, but may require a small reversal process. I'll also be looking to see if there are trade opportunities worth the risk of being long here as selling /shorting in to price strength when it comes is the more sound strategy.

As for Oil, as posted in  USO/Oil Update yesterday,

"Here's what has happened recently in USO as I suspect a near term (as in a day or so) bounce off support/resistance of the base"

And that is already underway from the overnight session, we'll keep an eye on it for a tick down as I don't see it as much more than a bit of noise.
Oil Futures since yesterday's close.

Again, I'll likely be closing the VXX calls sometime today, perhaps early.

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