Thursday, May 21, 2015

A.M. Update

The weakness in Index futures seen yesterday after the market close held fairly steady through the overnight session with some slight gains leaving ES looking like this, this morning...
 ES 1 min Index futures have remained fairly constant at yesterday's post cash market lows.

The $USDX has started to come down overnight, although easier to see the reversal process that I have been talking about on slightly longer charts...

This 7 min $USDX chart shows the divergence that led to the analysis of the correction and you see the rounding of the reversal process and the start of a corrective move down.

This in tuen has sent oil higher this morning, we'll see soon if gold follows suit and opens up the 2 trades for a second chance entry.

Meanwhile the EUR/USD has put in its rounding reversal process and looks near ready for a small bounce as anticipated on this 5 min chart.

I'm still looking for the reversal process in the averages to mature as you can see it here on the SPY 10 min "Gas in the tank" chart as the divergence becomes worse and the reversal process is revealed in lateral/rounding.

Additionally overnight China, Germany and the Euro-zone missed on PMI data with Germany and the Eurozone missing the worst.

Also there's a growing chorus as predicted long ago and again last night for rate hikes sooner as the economy CAN'T be right (src.) only computer models can as the BEA gets ready to seasonally adjust the first quarter a second time, an adjustment of the adjustment and overnight to show the F_E_D is behind this, none other than Goldman Sachs re-ran their FRB/US Computer Model and saw, "Little slack" in the economy, a keyword for Yellen.

Initial Claims were slightly higher than consensus, but the 4 week moving average is at cycle lows and just shy of record lows from 1972 while continuing claims also at cycle lows are at new lows not seen since 2000. However the Chicago F_E_D National Activity Index printed a 4th month of contraction at -0.15.

Hopefully we'll get some nice trade set-ups and a lot more movement than yesterday, at least I anticipate that.

We do have an F_O_M_C voting member , Fischer, speaking today so look for some potential volatility on his comments (dovish).

Otherwise, I'll be keeping an eye on the $USDX , oil and gold as well as TLT for very near term trade set ups and the continues deterioration of the 10 min charts as this week has seen the reversal process play out as pointed out last night with this chart...

"This is all of the major averages including Transports (in salmon) for this entire week. Our "Week Ahead" forecast said, 

"I don't think the bounce is quite complete or its reversal process is not quite complete which means that my first assumption would be that the market would be rangebound and choppy in the area finishing the reversal process..."

Again, these are the major averages for this entire week, would you say that they look "rangebound/choppy", which is a typical hallmark of a reversal process (until the very end when a last small head fake usually appears) ?"


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