The overnight session kicked off with weakness in China, with the Shanghai Composite down -4.06%, which has been a part of the FXI/FXP analysis we've been seeing recently. The Hang Seng was down -1.31% and the Nikkei is still closed until Thursday for the "Golden Week".
The $USD had seen earlier strength in the overnight session with broad EUR weakness (EUR/USD), that however turned and saw the $USD sustain further losses on the US trade data out at 8:30 a.m. coming in at the biggest miss on record at -$51.4bn vs consensus of $41.7 mn. This is also the worst print since October of 2008 and looks as if it will have an obvious impact on Q2 GDP which the Atlanta F_E_D's GDPNow forecast has pegged at 0.8% currently.
USDX overnight strength and then losses shortly after the European open and at the release of trade data at the white arrow (8:30 am EDT).
The 1 min Euro futures show overnight weakness until just after the European open with a small positive divergence before the move up and recent negative divergences so I suspect we will see the EUR/USD lose recent upside momentum and the Dollar lose recent downside momentum.
The EUR/USD 1 min overnight/this morning.
The 30 min $USD futures still have a significant positive divergence for a counter trend move, although some damage has been done in the red square, I still think it's enough to lift the $USD to a larger counter trend bounce as we have expected.
Crude got a boost from the Saudi Oil Minister's comments that the price of oil was in "Allah's hands",
The reaction in Crude futures on a 1 min chart, however this seems like a silly, parabolic move. I think I'll wait for the cash session to open and look at the charts after it has run a bit before getting too worked up about this move.
The 5 min Crude futures chart did not confirm the move so I suspect this is a knee jerk reaction that will come back down.
Yesterday/last night I said I expected the market to look weak based on the way the 3C charts looked in to the close and it does, this is ES 1 min overnight and this morning. However, once the cash market opens we will have a better idea of what trade looks like, I still expect to see higher prices before this bounce ends.
On another note our NFLX long should see some action as it is gapping up this morning.
An early morning update will follow as soon as the normal a.m. stop/limit runs are over.
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