MCP Follow Up

MCP has been of interest to us for a long time, it has had some very interesting strong positive signals despite being whacked in price. As I often remark about 3C, "We can see what's going on under the surface of price, but by the time we find out why, the chance to use that edge to your advantage is gone", After all the hit pieces in Seeking Alpha, it seems one of the inside knowledge events was likely the 10 year contract MCP received to supply Siemens with rare earth metals. I seriously doubt a 10-year contract like that happens in weeks or even months and is likely at least part of what we have been seeing in underlying trade.

Like a few different assets, MCP is near the top of its base's range and seems to be hitting resistance there.

Since the last big run in MCP (approx +200%) we saw a pullback/consolidation at minimum coming.
Since then, I've hoped to see a strong bout of accumulation on a pullback with enough support to blow through the base and move to stage 2 mark up.

Here's what we have as of now...

 Here's the daily chart's "W" base and resistance.

This is a multi-day 3C chart for the big picture, this is longer than we have typically used in the past and has shown a definitive change in character just as MCP has formed a lateral base from the previous downtrend, note the leading positive divergence to the far right.

Here's a close up view and "Churning" at resistance, note the tall upper wick on the daily candle indicating higher prices were rejected and the high volume which is indicative of strong hands selling to weak hands.

There has been a consolidation since then.

Here's a triangle (surprise right) consolidation that is at its apex which means it should make a directional move sooner than later and the price pattern would suggest to the upside, even the break below the apex today suggests a head fake move right at the apex to give MCP momentum for an upside move.

The daily Trend Channel has a current stop on a closing basis at $.77, but it may lock in a little more on the upside.

This is the 3 min chart, I don't need to tell you it is positive.

This 5 min chart shows positive divergences at the lows, a move higher that was pushed down and another positive divergence as the apex of the triangle forms.

This to me seems like an upside breakout is coming,  but is a breakout above resistance of the base coming?

On an hourly chart, that's where I have my doubts. I don't think MCP did enough work to breakout of the base and hold that breakout for a stage 2 trend (rally).

If I were to play this, I'd consider the stop and resistance as a possible if not probable target, although a head fake move that looks similar to USO right now could be in the card before MCP would make a pullback, so that may be worth more on the upside.

I just don't feel comfortable otherwise with any trade expecting more than that unless I'm simply holding MCP as a long term trend position as I DO BELIEVE MCPP WILL EVENTUALLY BREAKOUT TO STAGE 2 / RALLY.