Friday, May 29, 2015

Early Update

Well can you believe that, the second revision of Q1 GDP comes in and nothing reacts except some bonds, which I suspect will be a limited reaction. Of course the F_E_D has already inoculated itself from any and all Q1 GDP weakness as transitory and the actual print of -0.7 was better than consensus of -0.8 down from +0.2%. Just remember, if there's a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, the US is in recession. I highly doubt the data massagers will allow that by a long shot.

Things look a little more exciting this morning than the usual Friday options expiration, but I suspect they'll calm down soon, as far as the averages go, keep a close eye on volume/candlesticks for the intraday flameout as well as the TICK intraday channel.

Oil bouncing on a weaker $USD right now is no surprise, this update from Tuesday night had called for exactly that, USO / Crude Update.

If you saw yesterday's The $USD and USO / Oil then you probably know I don't believe oil's move to the downside is over, I see this as more of a gap fill before heading lower.

Gold is also gaining some traction, but showing some interesting mixed charts so I may take some trade management steps or may just let things smooth out a bit, we;'ll see how they develop.

It does look like the $USD is weakening a bit more, it may be that it does until later today or Monday with a final push before rolling over.

Right now things feel very transient (this morning), as I'm writing I see TLT is already coming back down and SPY/IWM look to be losing downside momentum and will likely start turning lateral within the hour.

I'm going to take this time to continue going through some watch lists, I have alerts set so if anything interesting pops up I can get to it quickly.

What an economy and we are looking at hikes? I know there have been a lot of answers to this question, but I can't stop asking it, "What is the F_E_D really afraid of?"

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