TLT Position Update

The TLT June 19th Put position is still in place, today has been an interesting bit of movement, but I am not concerned about it.

Here are the charts for TLT/30 year Treasuries which if you recall, on a larger trade basis, I believe will make a counter trend rally, but we'll have to confirm that upon a decline first before entering the position in any size.

 You might think the move in 30 year treasuries this morning was based on the GDP second reading, but unless it was leaked and I'm not even sure why that would matter because it came in better than consensus even though reduced to a negative print, there was a small 1 min positive divergence after the close yesterday, not really looking like much , but moved 30 year treasuries through the entire overnight session, not simply at what you might expect, the 8:30 GDP release.

The 1 min TLT chart shows a similar positive divergence, although quite small in to the last hour and a half of yesterday. Today it's simply in line.

However I'm not concerned about TLT coming down as it is the more serious, stronger timeframes that the idea is based on and there's not much gas in the tank of a 1.5 hour 1 min divergence.

 The 3 min TLT chart with the base I suspect that will lead to an eventual counter trend move, however first there's a strong negative divergence to the far right and that's what the TLT put position is based on. Nothing there has changed.

The same leading negative divergence is on the 5 min chart as well which is even stronger.

 And on the stronger 10 min chart.

This is a closer view of the current divergence on the 10 min chart.

What I'd be looking for to enter/add to a TLT counter trend long trade would be the pullback/decline that the charts above are forecasting and look for signs of accumulation of a constructive pullback in to the decline, then I'd feel a lot better about a second, longer term TLT long trade, but that depends on this first one wrapping up which I am not too worried about it doing.