Thursday, June 25, 2015

As I said, the Market Looks Very Dangerous

If you took yesterday's IWM, Trade Idea: Just For Fun, aren't you glad you tok your gains earlier today at the warning, Closing the IWM Call with a decent +7% gain rather than the current -18% loss. After all it was a short term trade and the market was looking dangerous.


 IWM 2 min chart's positive divergence and then...
This morning's warning that thing were turning south quickly.

Since earlier today, the divergence has fallen apart. I think in this case rather than finishing what they started (which you could say they did in a sense as they much likely has better positioning than us and we came out of it with a profit) , things just went to survival mode.

So far the move lower that has triggered numerous alerts I've set, has near perfect intraday confirmation.

 The intraday NYSE TICK shows things just went south, 3C gave us enough notice to come out of yesterday's IWM calls with a gain.

The custom TICK indicator shows the same, internals went south.

However this was already the highest probability outcome as the reversal process finished up after Monday's initial price strength.

 The ES/SPX futures 30 min chart as well as the mini cycle since last Monday with the now, 4 stages.

ES 3 min chart confirming the reversal process, moving to stage 4 decline.

Again, reversals are more a process than an event and they are proportional most of the time to the preceding trend. It just takes practice and experience looking at enough charts, labelling the different stages and getting a feel for proportionality.

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