EU Bailout Offer Denied

I was wondering what all of the dust up was this morning in the EUR/USD, although I hadn't heard any news other than the Troika had offered Greece a third bailout program that would cover debt payments or kick the can, until December.

Apparently this drop in the EUR/USD this morning, which as noted yesterday is in line with the intermediate to longer 3C charts (positive $USD/negative EUR futures), was Tsipras saying "No" or Nien...

EUR/USD 1 min chart this morning with the Troika's EU offer denied, which means tomorrow's EuroGroup meeting is likely the last chance to get any kind of deal as Merkel has set the pre-market open Monday as the deadline and the high EU commission has set the deadline as Saturday. the IMF's deadline is June 30th at which time Greece will have missed their June $1.7 bn Euro payment and at that point, just like with Lehman, no one knows where the spider web cracks will lead, usually to some surprising places that few imagine.

So far this hasn't made much noise in the market as it looks like a fairly normal Friday/Options Expiration Max-pain pin day...

 While the tone of intraday charts like the 1 min IWM above has been negative with any price strength being sold/distributed, so far this morning there's not a lot of movement in line with an options expiration max pain pin.

The QQQ 3 min also showing any short term bounces/price strength sold in to as we saw all last week and all this week, but not much of a dust up this morning.

The same is true for the SPT (3 min intraday). If you look to the far right, today's action is pretty much in line with price.

However remember perspective and not to get lost in tunnel vision. If we look at the trend of the exact same chart and timeframe...

 The 3 min SPY shows 3C trending lower and every bounce attempt no matter how small or the larger one since last Monday the 15th, they are all sold in to as 3C hits new leading negative lows. That's the trend, the message of the market and its not good for the bulls.

As for the intraday breadth/TICK, to the right we have a slight downtrend channel forming with a downside extreme of > -1000 hit this morning, but still not the panic of a Lehman Weekend in Greece yet.

I suspect the op-ex max-oain join will give way earlier than the normal 2 pm today.