Friday, June 26, 2015

The Week Ahead

So far there are some short term intraday positive divergence in most of the averages, except the IWM interestingly given the re-balance and probably largest volume day of the year.

The short term charts may be reflecting end of day trade, which we'll only know as we go in to the close. Otherwise, they seem to reflect the same thing as last week, early market price strength at the start of the week, and the intermediate to longer term charts look like we'll see continues downside as we move toward breaking support such as the SPX 150-day moving average.

Any short term (possible price strength) early next week should be used to sell in to, but again this may just be R2K rebalancing that is toward the close today.

Otherwise, I see nothing that would interfere with continues downside and breaking support until the next support level and we'll likely know before we get there whether it holds as short term like the 150-day or we slice right through.

Credit is selling off, meaning smart money isn;'t buying any risk, they are exiting risk in droves as I'll show you after the close.

Based on the charts alone, I think we get some additional , excellent position entries early in the week with additional downside through the rest of the week, although I'd expect it to pick up as we have already moved through the reversal process for the bounce from 6/15/2015.

I see no reason to close any short positions, we have no way of knowing what Greece will bring over the weekend and even beyond that, the market is in a dangerous place without Greece.

At best I suspect we may get some options entries early in the week assuming Greece doesn't send the market over the cliff, but Greece seems to have 9 lives and able to kick the can as the EU loves kicking the can.

I don't have any plans to change ANY positions going in to the weekend. If Greece sends us lower Monday, we are in position to profit. If short term signals are above and beyond the R2K rebalance, then we have a good chance at opening put options early in to the week, as in Monday. I expect the downside will pick up next week as I said above, we are through the reversal process from this week off the 6/15 lows.

I'll have charts after the close.

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