Monday, July 27, 2015

A.M. UPDATE

It's probably not news to you that the Shanghai Composite had a horrible session, with its second worse close in history as stocks plunged the last hour of trade resulting in some 1500 stocks halted. The Hang Seng wasn't as bad, still down -3%, the Nikkei down -.95% and Europe solidly red from the -1 to -2% range with US Index futures down over 1%.

All of the major averages are close to some support, in many cases last ditch support, of some kind. The DIA is near its last support before it cracks hard. The QQQ have retraced and confirmed in price that the breakout above this year's resistance was indeed a head fake to be sold/shorted. The SPY is below where the July 10th bounce started, but with some support just below and the IWM is at congestion support levels from March and May.

everyone is looking for the reason Chinese stocks are crashing, saying the PBoC will not defend the market and all kinds of other theories, the simple matter is, despite all of the threats, bans on selling, bans on short selling, arresting short sellers, forcing funds to buy, it's a bear market. This is what they do.

As for the US, one of my suspicions in the Week Ahead Friday was not only for continued weakness ahead and for it to accelerate as the SPX breaks its 200-day ma, but either some early week/Monday bounce or consolidation or that it would try to finish some work it was doing late Friday to possibly give it an area to bounce from, but the theme in my view big picture has't changed and that's down.

As for charts...
 ES 1 min since the Sunday open in Futures confirming the downside with a slight leading positive divergence now.

 TF showing the same thing after overnight weakness.

 And NQ 1 min showing the same.

The 30 year Treasury futures and treasuries we talked about late last week in regard to yields could help the market stabilize here briefly.
 30 year T. Futures have a 1 min negative divergence and the longer term charts do as well.

ZB 5 min negative
The 3 min ES also has a relative positive divergence.


 While the 10 min charts have been in line with the downside, but price has caught down to the leading negative divergence which isn't a positive, it's just a bit more neutral than the chart last week.

 NQ futures haven't caught down and this is more what we looked like last week.


 But Russell 2000 10 min Futures have also caught down.

As for FX...
 The Euro which has remained bid through European weakness looks a bit weak in EUR/USD 1 min here.

 And the USD/JPY carry pair has a relative positive.

 The 1 min Euro since Sunday also seeing weakness in 3C as it was bid higher.

 1 min Yen futures also reflecting USD/JPY possible strength through Yen weakness.

And the positive 1 min $USD rounds out the picture.

We'll see soon enough.

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