Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Futures Indications

I just went through my 80+ futures charts in multiple timeframes and there weren't any huge surprises, but I'll try to deal with each in its own post.

The market bounce that was more or less expected to take up this week (that doesn't mean bounce through the entire week, but can be inclusive of the topping /reversal process), looks about right.

 Looking at the SPY 10m min chart's base area for a bounce alone shows an area that's large enough to support a bounce well beyond 2 days. That's not to say there aren't some troublesome looking charts that can turn quickly and need to be watched carefully, but I'm not so concerned about an immediate "V" shaped downside reversal. The SPX broke above its 50-day which it could not do yesterday, that was the bare minimum that this bounce had to achieve and has.

Again the bigger picture in context with the same asset and timeframe...
SPY 10 min chart has seen steady, solid deterioration which is why it has made a pair of lower highs and lower lows and threatens to break the 200-day moving average on the next pivot to the downside.

VIX Futures look interesting, they look more like a barometer of where we are in the bounce process, which would be fairly early, but they are already at work on their own base for a downside pivot. I would not say that they are there yet and as such the UVXY short will be left open , now at a near 29% gain with no leverage (no options).

 UVXY/VXX 3 min leading positive, but the reversal process is probably the best indication, which looks to be about 1/2 way through.

 5 min UVXY/VXX charts leading positive

And the bigger picture with the large accumulation area to the left , the pullback negative divergence in red and a leading positive divergence at a second bottom or large "W" base. The bottom reversal process is almost always about twice as tight as the top, but the main feature is both lows coming together as one bigger base for VXX/UVXY which move opposite the market.

VIX futures are positive out to their 15 min charts.

USO / Oil also looks interesting, positive from 5 min to 60 min charts in oil futures.
 USO 2 min leading positive

The earlier Iranian news sending USO lower has been put in to perspective, meaning 6-12 months before Iranian oil hits the market.

 3 min USO

10 min USO..I'm still sticking with yesterday's position unless USO pullback in to increased accumulation, beyond that I'd prefer keep the position speculative and as a set up for the next trade.

USO 30 min leading positive and looking very close to an upside bounce.

Gold was the final asset showing some interesting signals. My early theory is that it needs a bit more of a pullback, perhaps it links up to a pivot with the market (market bounce ends, gold bounce begins), either way, gold futures are positive in numerous timeframes and it's time to take a serious look at them again.

Finally TLT and specifically 30 year Treasury futures are showing some interesting divergence in futures from that are with a closer look as I'll post.

the market itself isn't doing anything not expected last Friday, in fact it didn't put in a pullback earlier in the week which would have only made the bounce stronger, but it did see the SPX surpass the 50-day today which was the bare minimum.

For now, market related positions should be more management, for example when to close UVXY and start opening market shorts.

I'm going to check end of day trade and Leading Indicators if I get a chance to get to both before the close as well as update Gold.




No comments: