Market Update

The last couple of quick posts, the market has been trying to grab something as it has been sliding. There's a lot of weakness in the market and as I said yesterday and the day before, an ever shrinking door for market participants to exit from do to liquidity factors, so sharp moves like what we just witnessed are one of the reasons that I don't consider this a long traceable market, it's in one of those rare stages you only see as the market is about to rollover in which you can wake up to  a massive gap down that takes out weeks of trade or in this case,

nearly the entire Dow's bounce cycle from 7/10 and a long term , important trend line.

As for support in getting a toe hold,

USD/JPY is struggling, but the $USD still has some gas in the tank.

$USD 1 min still positive.

The Yen intraday is closer to in line, but has a slight divergence that if it gets worse, it will support USD/JPY upside and thus the market.

Yen Futures 1 min could turn to a negative and that would help push USD/JPY higher and support the market.

As for more direct charts of the averages...

  SPY 1 min is finding a toehold and should try to bounce off the area.

However that was some serious selling. Remember the TICK earlier in a very tame range?

On that downside move we hit -1357, which is an extreme, the kind of extreme that tells us there has been some serious damage.

 However remember the 5 min chart I showed earlier today with the interpretation ? It has now taken on a new meaning as it is now leading negative. The 4 stages of the bounce's cycle are numbered with the Head Fake at "HF" in yellow. This is generally our best positioning, at the head fake, it is the best entry and lowest risk which is why all short positions are open and have remained so as we are in stage 4 decline. That doesn't mean there can't or won't be bounces, but this cycle is a fairly reliable way to look at the market whether on a swing move like this, intraday or a weekly chart. The point being, you saw this same chart earlier today it has seen significant deterioration on a 5 min timeframe when the fastest 1 min charts wouldn't confirm earlier (the gap up in QQQ).

 The Q's are also finding a toe hold here, this is the non confirmation of the gap from this morning mentioned above. As of the A.M. update, premarket Index futures were showing distribution from overnight gains so not surprising.

 QQQ 3 min timing chart, note how it gives us excellent timing right at the QQQ head fake, this is where we added QQQ puts.

 And the QQQ 15 min chart with my version of Stoch. in decline.

 The 1 min IWM also gaining traction here,

 However since the top in the IWM we've had pretty strong downside confirmation.

And as a further reminder to respect the bigger picture, the Custom TICK...

I have been pointing out the deterioration in market breadth, now it's quite easy to see vs the SPY.