BVN
SNWL
SF
WIT
MOT
MNTG
FCX
TUP
OXGN
CRM
IOC
CRNT
NEXM
ATW
CYMI
7 years ago
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Intraday Update
These trades-most on last night's list, are all looking interesting this am.
BVN
SNWL
SF
WIT
MOT
MNTG
FCX
TUP
OXGN
CRM
IOC
CRNT
NEXM
ATW
CYMI
BVN
SNWL
SF
WIT
MOT
MNTG
FCX
TUP
OXGN
CRM
IOC
CRNT
NEXM
ATW
CYMI
Monday, February 8, 2010
Bunch of new Trades up
You'll find them under Feb 8th on the spread sheet at the bottom and all are for execution on the open at market except where noted.
The market did not give us the same strong close we saw Friday and made new lows in several averages. It looks like we're back on the way down. Short trades like MOT, JPM, GSS, etc (email me if you need another opinion) can be conservatively added to and all the others are fairly good position to take a full position although you may want to enter partial and add upon follow through or a pullback. There are a few longs as well-mostly speculative.
I know there are a lot of trades, but I listed what looks good right now. The key to choosing may be that you chose a trade that you do not already have correlated exposure to. For the first time there are some gold stocks and more oil industry stocks. So don't be overwhelmed by the list, look for trades that are in groups you are not in yet.
The market did not give us the same strong close we saw Friday and made new lows in several averages. It looks like we're back on the way down. Short trades like MOT, JPM, GSS, etc (email me if you need another opinion) can be conservatively added to and all the others are fairly good position to take a full position although you may want to enter partial and add upon follow through or a pullback. There are a few longs as well-mostly speculative.
I know there are a lot of trades, but I listed what looks good right now. The key to choosing may be that you chose a trade that you do not already have correlated exposure to. For the first time there are some gold stocks and more oil industry stocks. So don't be overwhelmed by the list, look for trades that are in groups you are not in yet.
SRS
is an UltraShort on Real Estate (2x inverse) and looks pretty good right in this area. The breakout would occur around $8.50 where I'm sure there are a lot of buy orders lined up. Take a look, I like it here.
XLF (11:30 am) looks like it's hit in intraday double top and should pull back a little from here, it could be a quick day trade on a leveraged financial ETF like FAZ or SKF-or this could be the start of something bigger, but I can't say that yet considering the strength of Friday's pattern.
Check back often today.
XLF (11:30 am) looks like it's hit in intraday double top and should pull back a little from here, it could be a quick day trade on a leveraged financial ETF like FAZ or SKF-or this could be the start of something bigger, but I can't say that yet considering the strength of Friday's pattern.
Check back often today.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Holding Pattern
Ok, again we are in another holding pattern with the G7 meeting basically saying the EU will manage the Greek crisis. Whether the market believes it or not is an unknown and if it matters is an unknown. What is known is we had a strong close/reversal signal Friday suggesting that the market may move up Monday and possibly beyond. The last two lists I put out last week have all the shorts I would consider or consider adding to if we do get such a bounce. As long as it stays under resistance we could see anything from an intraday move to a bear flag, in any case, it should provide good positioning for shorts, specifically the ones I mentioned in the last week.
Do not over commit again until we see what this means but there's no point in listing shorts on a market bounce and longs are countertrend at this point so go with what is there. Check this site tomorrow during market hours as I will update with any shorts should this flop and turn south-MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE SITE AFTER 12pm UNTIL CLOSE or until I post.
Some favorites still include JPM or GS-not both maybe some FAZ, FAS (both long as they are inverse already). I'll add anything I think shows a good risk/reward ration as of tomorrow when we know a little more. Just hang in there and be patient. If you have longs and the market moves higher, it ay be time to consider taking gains or losses and closing them out. If you need a second opinion on any, let me know by email.
Have a great week!
Do not over commit again until we see what this means but there's no point in listing shorts on a market bounce and longs are countertrend at this point so go with what is there. Check this site tomorrow during market hours as I will update with any shorts should this flop and turn south-MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE SITE AFTER 12pm UNTIL CLOSE or until I post.
Some favorites still include JPM or GS-not both maybe some FAZ, FAS (both long as they are inverse already). I'll add anything I think shows a good risk/reward ration as of tomorrow when we know a little more. Just hang in there and be patient. If you have longs and the market moves higher, it ay be time to consider taking gains or losses and closing them out. If you need a second opinion on any, let me know by email.
Have a great week!
Thursday, February 4, 2010
It Seems Pretty Clear
Market sentiment has shifted, this is no run of the mill pullback and I think we got decent positioning on the timeframe, ma day earlier would have been the best, but I did write this on Feb 3rd at 3:18 pm,
"I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts."
So I'm happy all in all with the way the indicators are performing.We even got a nice exit today out of our BOFL position at about 15% and added a bunch to the shorts all this week.
The market closed really bad today, didn't really bust through support but closed at the low of the day with a 10:1 ratio of stocks closing down on rising volume vs.stocks closing up-That's huge and is either going to sink more Friday (I'd say it will) or has quickly hit an oversold condition-The VIX is soaring.
So are there shorts out there still? Yes! If I'm right, then this is just the beggining of a much larger trend down and we'll be tlking about how to make more than 100% on a short. So don't feel like the 5% move down today in many of these has sidelined you, they are still very short-able in the larger context. When I see what looks like a home run I'll post them but for now last night's list which was a bit big, is the current positions as most of the shorts I have, already moved-might as well hit these high Beta shorts.
What I posted yesterday was significant, and they were the highest Beta stock in the WL. What is important now is propper position sizing and diversification.
If you want a second opinion then let me know by email. Lets see what you have on the short side, what your exposure is and what needs to be trimmed or added. For rigt now let these shorts work. Another ippourtnity will present it self.
A strane chart that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is AIG starting to look a little bullish. There's a chance it may have some sort of pop or breakout from the descending wedge. If you try it, be conervative-these patterns usually give second chances to add, but it's one of the strangest charts I've seen as a long right now.
Use the email, I'm here to help and answer your questions: Brandt@Trade-Guild.net or Bt24_7@yahoo.com
"I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts."
So I'm happy all in all with the way the indicators are performing.We even got a nice exit today out of our BOFL position at about 15% and added a bunch to the shorts all this week.
The market closed really bad today, didn't really bust through support but closed at the low of the day with a 10:1 ratio of stocks closing down on rising volume vs.stocks closing up-That's huge and is either going to sink more Friday (I'd say it will) or has quickly hit an oversold condition-The VIX is soaring.
So are there shorts out there still? Yes! If I'm right, then this is just the beggining of a much larger trend down and we'll be tlking about how to make more than 100% on a short. So don't feel like the 5% move down today in many of these has sidelined you, they are still very short-able in the larger context. When I see what looks like a home run I'll post them but for now last night's list which was a bit big, is the current positions as most of the shorts I have, already moved-might as well hit these high Beta shorts.
What I posted yesterday was significant, and they were the highest Beta stock in the WL. What is important now is propper position sizing and diversification.
If you want a second opinion then let me know by email. Lets see what you have on the short side, what your exposure is and what needs to be trimmed or added. For rigt now let these shorts work. Another ippourtnity will present it self.
A strane chart that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is AIG starting to look a little bullish. There's a chance it may have some sort of pop or breakout from the descending wedge. If you try it, be conervative-these patterns usually give second chances to add, but it's one of the strangest charts I've seen as a long right now.
Use the email, I'm here to help and answer your questions: Brandt@Trade-Guild.net or Bt24_7@yahoo.com
TIME TO START HITTING THE SHORTS
I have a lot I can give you, even look at past ideas within the last week or so, like STD which gave a good entry few days back.
CTIC had a decent move today-look for follow through and an exit.
Reiterate Shorts on PWRD, JEF,GS.
The ideas I gave you for the 4th-on the list as the 3rd, are the ones that look the best now with the highest BETA. If I were to give you all, there would be 50. The Beta means if the market moves 1% and the stock has a Beta of 1, then it would move 1%. If the Beta is 1.20 then it would move about 1.2%. So some of these are big movers.
With the dollar showing strength I have Silver and oil on the list. Also there several foreign banks on the list, nearly all I'm tracking look bad.
Email me if you have questions.
CTIC had a decent move today-look for follow through and an exit.
Reiterate Shorts on PWRD, JEF,GS.
The ideas I gave you for the 4th-on the list as the 3rd, are the ones that look the best now with the highest BETA. If I were to give you all, there would be 50. The Beta means if the market moves 1% and the stock has a Beta of 1, then it would move 1%. If the Beta is 1.20 then it would move about 1.2%. So some of these are big movers.
With the dollar showing strength I have Silver and oil on the list. Also there several foreign banks on the list, nearly all I'm tracking look bad.
Email me if you have questions.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Now Is the Time?
I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
We are almost there
I'm not crazy about how the longs are performing, I'd say any chance you get to make a buck, take it soon-the rally wont last that long. Go to Trade-Guild.net and look at the 10 charts I posted including the short on GS!
For now, I'm putting a couple of shorts out there, but it's still hold mode until this bounce starts to roll-over then load em up.
For now, I'm putting a couple of shorts out there, but it's still hold mode until this bounce starts to roll-over then load em up.
Shorts
Here's a few I'd consider getting a position started in-not huge or if you have, add conservatively-PWRD and EBIX both short.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Not Lazy, Disciplined
Yesterday I wrote,
"The dollar remains strong but 3C suggests a pullback, which may give the market room to bounce."
An intraday chart of 3C-you can see on Friday it didn't make higher highs and thus gave me a warning of the reversal. This is one of the few indicators you will see (I created it) that has the power of prediction rather than reaction. If you'd like to try it, click on the links below and let them know that Trade Guild sent you and then email me.
Today, the market gave us a clue as to it's intensions. This is why I mixed it up yesterday. Hopefully the longs will move on the bounce, at that point, I'll be watching for signs of the end of the bounce-we sell the longs, add to or initiate shorts and we start making money on a market downtrend. So for now, I'm not adding anything, if your position is okay (email me if you need an opinion) then I'd say hold what ya got. We are letting our shorts bounce, I kept them rather small anticipating this so we'll ride that out and we are about 60% in terms of positions long and bout 60% in terms of capital short. When this is all said and done, I'd like to be near 85% short of invested capital. I'll let you know when I see a turn in 3C, but if the market bounce gives you a gift on the long side-20,30% gain or more-Take it and be prepared to start picking up shorts. I'm not sure how I'm going to give them to you because nearly all will line up the same day and I have over 200 excellent looking candidates.
Is this a bounce or more? 1580 of the Russell 2000 closed up-Strong right? No, they closed up on diminishing volume-the weakest of the 4 possible price volume relationships, this is a market that looks ready to bounce, but not very enthusiastic about it. Those kind of numbers are seen at the end of an up-move, not the start!
OF all NYSE stocks roughly 1650 closed down today, 3089 closed up on less volume and 1547 closed up on increasing volume-that is heavily lopsided bearish. Of the NASDAQ 100-77 of them closed up on lighter volume-EVEN WORSE! The Dow -30-26! The S&P-500 386 on lighter volume and only 65 on heavier.
You see what I mean-the market is petrified to move up. So be patient. Take a look at some of the past ideas that haven't moved for short term long trades, you can always run them by me or just wait. A Huge opportunity to back up the truck is days a way.
"The dollar remains strong but 3C suggests a pullback, which may give the market room to bounce."
Today, the market gave us a clue as to it's intensions. This is why I mixed it up yesterday. Hopefully the longs will move on the bounce, at that point, I'll be watching for signs of the end of the bounce-we sell the longs, add to or initiate shorts and we start making money on a market downtrend. So for now, I'm not adding anything, if your position is okay (email me if you need an opinion) then I'd say hold what ya got. We are letting our shorts bounce, I kept them rather small anticipating this so we'll ride that out and we are about 60% in terms of positions long and bout 60% in terms of capital short. When this is all said and done, I'd like to be near 85% short of invested capital. I'll let you know when I see a turn in 3C, but if the market bounce gives you a gift on the long side-20,30% gain or more-Take it and be prepared to start picking up shorts. I'm not sure how I'm going to give them to you because nearly all will line up the same day and I have over 200 excellent looking candidates.
Is this a bounce or more? 1580 of the Russell 2000 closed up-Strong right? No, they closed up on diminishing volume-the weakest of the 4 possible price volume relationships, this is a market that looks ready to bounce, but not very enthusiastic about it. Those kind of numbers are seen at the end of an up-move, not the start!
OF all NYSE stocks roughly 1650 closed down today, 3089 closed up on less volume and 1547 closed up on increasing volume-that is heavily lopsided bearish. Of the NASDAQ 100-77 of them closed up on lighter volume-EVEN WORSE! The Dow -30-26! The S&P-500 386 on lighter volume and only 65 on heavier.
You see what I mean-the market is petrified to move up. So be patient. Take a look at some of the past ideas that haven't moved for short term long trades, you can always run them by me or just wait. A Huge opportunity to back up the truck is days a way.
