Tuesday, March 30, 2010

UUP Going UP

The ETF for the Dollar Index pulled back as I suspected it would, I didn't think it would only last 2 days. In any case, I believe it can be bought here and now with the caveat that it closes above $23.92; if so then you can hold it and place an initial stop below $23.83.

If the dollar is moving up, now would be the time to go back and take a look at my recent short ideas among energy and commodity related issues.

Monday, March 29, 2010

HESITANT

I posted a few limit trades today, they are a safety net more or less. I'm looking into something right now that is making me hesitant on this market in either direction, it may be nothing, but until I fully understand it, I'm hesitant and when I do, you'll be the first to know.

Otherwise, not much changed today, the Q's-even being up, actually violated a linear regression channel on an hourly chart to the downside. Before that the best we had was a 10-min chart violation.

We'll see soon enough.

I'm also running a new scan right now, it takes forever and a day to tun as it scans the entire market but if I see anything promising there, I'll add them to tonight's list so check back in the a.m.

Update to last night's list

NCS was mistakenly classified as a short, it is not a short. If you saw the stop and target you would have seen that, but it's my bad.

NCS is a long, the stop and the target have not changed.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

A Bunch of Trending Trades

First, as I pointed out today on Trade-Guild, I believe the market is showing negative sentiment, selling off on good news and that we have begun to turn the corner as this rally wraps up, I think we'll see a move lower and a sustainable one at that. There are more then enough reasons to justify such a move.

Most commodities have an inverse relationship with the $USD, that mean many commodity based stocks should make for excellent short sale candidates. Even better, commodities tend to trend better then equities, we are still shorting equities, but tonight's list are commodity based equities. These are trades for the long haul.

If you have my Trend Channel for stops and my modified version for trending entries, these are the stocks you want to use it on. If you don't have my trend channel, which takes each individual stock's recent volatility or a form of an Average True Range and creates a channel around price using standard deviations, you should consider either StockFinder or TeleChart and I'll be able to give out the formula for all of my indicators including 3C.

Check out the links below and let them know Trade Guild sent you.





Thursday, March 25, 2010

Second Verse Same as the First-The Ugliness continues

Today we got pretty decent news, the kind of news that has sent this market higher for quite a while now, but not today-nope! It's called a change in sentiment and the market is spooked by something, my guess is uncertainty as it relates to our auctions of debt, the healthcare bill, possible downgrades, the fact that the real unemployment number is close to 1 in 5 people are out of work or under-employed and it's on a rising trend-by the same measure, the Great Depression had a reading of 25%-we are at 20%.

Tonight's List- 

You'll find everything is at market and everything is short. If you are observant, you'll find that many ideas are in the same industry group-don't pick more then one unless you'll split them into half positions (avoid over-correlation). These are weak groups and stocks-I'll continue to add to them.

You can also get some short exposure on the market via FAZ or any of the UltraShort ETFs for the major averages. Again-watch the correlation-NOT GOOD RISK MANAGEMENT!

I'd suggest getting your toes wet in these and recent shorts I've posted (take a look at GOOG and AAPL as well), but let the market prove it's intentions before adding to the positions or making them full positions.

If anyone is enjoying any of the high-flyers that are trending up-email for the stop or use my Trend Channel if you have it.

CHANGE IN CHARACTER

Finally, we see a change in character follow through from last Friday, it may not have seemed like much, but the market internals give it away. Take a look at the short positions. The longs, especially the ones working like BEE, RNN, ACAD,CIGX, etc should be switched over to my trend channel, if you need the stops, email me.

Uncertainty has been reintroduced into the market in a big way and the dollar was proof positive of that, now for the market to catch up on the downside.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

ENERGY

There are a lot of energy short trades-most limit orders on tonight's list. take a look and see what works for you. There are a few more 1-2-day high flyers. Basically this market is in overbought territory and that is why you are seeing a lot of limit orders-"show me" is my attitude. I still am quite certain that we will see a major downtrend, the February ascending wedge was broken Friday on high volume and what we are seeing now is typical of wedges-institutions and middle men are running limit orders and stops and setting long positions. We may see more volatility as I warned, but soon we should have a definitive break down.

Monday, March 22, 2010

CHAOS

The health care uncertainty rally was today, now we have states suing the Federal government and uncertainty introduced back into the picture. The move that started Friday I believe is the real deal and today was a relief rally.

Stick to your stops, but hang in there.

Tonight I listed a lot of high-flyers-very speculative trades, be sure to read whether or not they are limit trades.

We'll know more about where the market is at in the next 2 days. We are holding our shorts.

Gifts Are to Be Graciously Accepted

Today we received a gift from last night's long, RNN which is currently up 16.78% and as high as 25.8%. Trades like this, especially under $5.00 should be considered gifts. You want to either take your profits, or take partial profits, maybe your original investment or half, whatever suits you. They can disappear just as fast.

On the other hand, this may be the start of a new trend, this is why I say you might consider taking partial profits, but you never want to let a trade like this turn into a loss. It may consolidate for a month before another move up and that is opportunity cost. So make a choice that makes sense to you, but make a choice.

This is also an example of why we buy at the open and at market. A limit order would have missed this trade.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

TRADES FOR MONDAY ARE UP

The market didn't just have a down day Friday it had something it hasn't had for weeks now, a truly DECISIVE day in which volume was huge and the chart patterns were altered significantly-could it be quadruple witching? The Health Care Debacle? Etc,etc,etc..... It doesn't matter.  Volume/Price relationships were Volume UP and Price down which indicates panics sellers. On Wednesday last week I posted an article about the market's coming reversal-there were so many signs and signals that I said, if we don't see a reversal, we'll need to re-think technical analysis. Here's the post:



As for trades from last week, many are still viable so look at those as well, especially FCX and CAR, it's not too late for those shorts. I'd advise giving yourself some room on the stops, maybe more then what I suggested-turn-around tops can be volatile, but I think we are in for a trend down. If you have my Trend Channel Indicator-now's the time to use it for stops to lock in profits, if you are unsure of the correct settings for your position, email me.

Remember what I said last week because you can use it in the future, "The market's initial reaction to Fed statements is almost always the wrong reaction and it usually reverses within a few days" and that is exactly what we saw last week. It applies to major government announcements as well, but more so to Fed policy statements.

As usual, any questions, please email me. Remember, unless you are getting slaughtered, stops are on the close, not intraday and never post them with a limit order, keep them in your head.

If your portfolio is significant;y long, email me, there are a few positions you can jump into to hedge it out for a bit until you can clean it up.

Have a great week.

Remember to scroll down to the bottom of the list.