TRADE ALERT-IYR

PUT THIS ONE ON YOUR RADAR- (short)

 A Dark Cloud cover so early? There's an excellent chance this is the false breakout that we like to see before entering a trade, thus we are not caught in such.

 The daily 3C chart seems to indicate that there was heavy distribution...

The 5 min chart confirms yesterday's price strength in a negative divergence as well as this a.m.'s gap higher.

This is one to really consider (short)

And There's The Congressmen's position

"GDP fell because a drop of local and state spending, so if we stop spending in Congress, it will make it worse, RIGHT?"

Oh my... When you're in a hole YOU STOP DIGGING!

Want to be talked to like a child?

Then just listen to this Bernanke Q&A in front of Congress

The Dow Jones US Steel Index

 The daily showing an entry I'd take now below yesterday's lows-across the steel complex and especially the names in the last post.

 The major index's false breakout-with the market-remember, heavy correlation.

and th Dow Steel Index vs. the SPY in red-note again, the extreme correlation. If the conditions which caused this end (namely the Fed's POMO), then the correlations should break up and make it easier to diversify.

Take a look at these Metal stocks

TIE, X, STLD, all looking pretty bad and there were a couple of false breakouts in them as well, a good sign their ready to move lower.

FCX-On the Radar

I've mentioned FCX a couple of times since the weekend, it's looking like a solid trade, but you must always beware the false breakout, etc, but normally this is where I'd be looking at entering. If your stop is wide enough, you should be able to handle volatility.

 A move under the last two days of support or today's lows thus far would serve as my trigger, the Trend Channel as my stop.

So I don't confuse anyone, yesterday didn't make a higher low so the day before was the signal candle, but there so close, I'd consider them nearly the same-$.03 difference. This is the "classic" kiss of resistance or the top -"good bye"-without manipulation, this is nearly a perfect set up. With manipulation,  it can get volatile and thus the wider stop.

BNO-Trades Brent

As a member reminded me, but the daily volume is often under 10k shares a day, I would never recommend you trade such an illiquid equity. So for now, I guess you have to be part of the boy's club at the Nymex.

So Far, Market Analysis and Theory has been right on

Looking at the SPY this a.m., all those retail limit orders that gapped her up got faded by the locals, it's too early to make anything of that, but yesterday I suggested we were getting into the distribution cycle and the accumulation cycle looked like it was big enough to keep prices up for another day maybe two or so as it would most likely round over, unless we get some undiscounted fundamental news.

This is why I never put orders in with brokers, why show them what your plans are? They'll just take the other side.

Gap up is faded by the locals, any NYSE stock is very at risk for this behavior.

It's a Real Shame

That the SEC hasn't allowed for the creation of individual ETFs or ETNs that allow us "common folk" to trade the various forms of crude, thy see it as too risky? But a 50% wipeout in the stock market in a year and a half, retracing the entire 4+ year rally and then some is just about the right amount of risk for the little folk.

We can trade USO which I believe is based on WTI, Brent is where the action has been. In any case, we are getting a nice lift off from support this am in USO.

 Support at the yellow arrow..

 5 min chart, I've been showing USO showing better then confirmation and that bit of accumulation has been into lateral price movement as we'd expect. I'm not 100% convinced a consolidation isn't still in effect as traders try to pick up more of the ETF before oil goes nuts.

And here very late yesterday a nice positive divergence around the 3:30 lows.

Keep an eye on HERO Long

I'd like to see it push north of $5.20 and then look at it as a long position.