MCRL Update

This morning  posted MCRL as a possible long trade 


I liked the trade right there @ $9.62 or on a breakout above the "W" bottom's resistance with some volume. MCRL is right in that breakout area, show if you are interested, now is the time to keep an eye on it.

 The resistance area of the "W" bottom

 60 min 3C leading positive divergence

15 min 3C leading positive divergence

ROYL Update/Chart Request

First of all, XLE (Energy) is looking pretty darn good on its own. Lets take a look at ROYL.

 The last time there was a daly divergence in ROYL, it ran nearly 300% in several days, we are again forming a daly positive divergence in ROYL.

 The 30 min chart has been accurate in calling the swings and is now leading positive.

 The 15 min chart, which often is a good timing indicator is also in a leading positive divergence.

 As is the 10 min chart.

As to what I was talking about this morning with regard to the market and double bottoms, Technical Analysis believes the second bottom or the test should fall short of the lows of the first bottom, but it has been my experience that there' almost always a head fake lower as we see here in ROYL and that is often a good timing indication. I would not be opposed to a well managed trade going long ROYL right here with a stop just below today's low on a closing basis.

GLD/DZZ Update

At  9:48 this morning I questioned whether GLD was broken. At 11:30 this morning I posted this trade idea short GLD/long DZZ ( $183.34/$3.94). 

The trade idea was a low risk set up and  know for a fact that several people too it, some playing short term options so they should be having a great day.

Here's GLD now...

GLD has now taken out Monday's range as well as Friday's close and total range.

DZZ is up over 8%, I'd like to know how our options players are dong on the short GLD trade?

This was a great example of a low risk trade, so long as you kept you risk management in place, it was virtually, well lets just say it was a very limited risk trade.

GLD taking out the last -days of trade range is another story altogether and belongs back with my original post, "Is GLD Broken?"

Successful Test?

It's a bit early to say but there are some indications that t may have been.

 QQQ 5 min still in a negative divergence...

However, the 1 min chart which responds faster has put in a positive divergence and is now in line.

URRE Follow Up (long trade idea)

Please see the last post on URRE from 8/18, I have expected it to continue to fall, but I had hoped to see sign of accumulation as it did, so far so good.

 URRE Daily chart-be sure to see the last update as well.

 URRE 15 min 3C

 URRE 10 min 3C

URRE 5 min 3C.

So far we are seeing the signs of accumulation I hoped to see during the pullback. I think we may have another 10-15% of downside to go before it bottoms, but that could be off a bit. Certainly in the $1.00 area I want to look at URRE as a longer term long position. There are great fundamentals and the daily chart is superb.

Keep this one on your watchlist.

Market Support

As I thought, the market fell to the support level that I figured support would kick in.

 The support area at the "W" intraday bottom breakout as well as the 50 bar 5 min moving average.

You can see 3C s showing a little fight being put up at this support level, we'll see if it holds.

This morning's post

Don't forget about this morning's post, we have bullish behavior in the market and I feel it's likely we'll see a lot more before the second shoe drops, but remember the post from this morning-'m not convinced we are done with the basing process.

For example, looking at the SPY

 Technically speaking, we are still trading in a lateral environment, these lateral environments are often when accumulation occurs, but can be choppy.

However, 3C looks much stronger at this second low then it did at the first.

Market Update

My last market update I showed you the early signs of an intraday pullback, here's the updated charts.

 DIA 5 min 3C and 50 bar moving average-target $109.75 would be a reasonable minimum target.

 QQQ 5 min 3C/50 bar m.a. The 50 bar m.a. about lines up with the small intraday double bottom breakout area, thus this are makes some sense to me as a support zone.

The same on the SPY, everything that applies to the QQQ applies to the SPY here.

Market Update

It looks like a consolidation or a pullback is on its way shortly.

 DIA 1 min is just barely out of line

 DIA 5 min shows a slight negative divergence.

 IWM 1 min shows a negative divergence

 IWM 2 mins shows the same

 IWM 5 mins is largely in line and suggests t won't (as of now) be too bad of a move down.

 QQQ 1 min negative divergence-on the 1 min chart only

 SPY 1 min negative divergence

SPY 5 min remains in confirmation.

SLV Follow Up

Earlier today I posted this update which included an excerpt from last Wednesday's update of what to expect from SLV, one was to break out to the upside of the bearish ascending wedge, 2) was to post a local new high, both of which happened, finally the reversal, which it seems is underway now.

Just as UBS is calling for $50 silver, silver starts falling, potentially giving UBS demand to sell in to. I never trust anything these investment banks put out and that was the point of my post last night that was centered around a member's question re: all the hype and expectations that have been created about the Jackson Hole meeting this Friday.

Here are the updated SLV/ZSL charts.

 3C 15 min chart incl. the wedge talked about last week, note the negative divergence once SLV did what I thought it would do.

 SLV 5 min negative divergence, the gap was not filled which is bearish, there's also a leading negative position in 3C.

 1 min 3C chart SLV- This one is also leading negative.

 Here is the local new highs I mentioned last week plus the breakout above the ascending wedge, which is the exact opposite of what technical traders would expect, when a technical pattern fails, they take the other side of the trade, meaning they went long SLV, that is why we see these head fakes, it creates bull and bear traps and snowballs price. Look for two significant levels of support to be broken, the local new highs around $41.20, which I believe are being tested now and then the apex of the wedge around $39.90-$40.00

 Don't forget the strength I showed you last week in ZSL through MoneyStream (Daily)

 60 min

 15 min

 3C positive 10 min leading

 3C positive 5 min leading

3C positive 1 min leading.

Usually the rule of thumb is a wedge will retrace its base, meaning the general target for SLV will be at least $36.00