QQQ Chart Request...

 Intraday there was earlier volume on a candle with a long wick (first red arrow, that candle and volume both looked like churning. The second red arrow shows an uptick in volume as the most obvious stop level is taken out.

 SPY 2 min leading negative

 SPY 15 min leading negative

 30 min leading negative

60 min leading negative and nearly hitting new lows

ES Update

3C ES continues to push to new lows on top of the large relative divergence from overnight.

 SPY 1 min continues moving in the right direction.

 SPY 2 min has made it's move leading lower.

 As has the 5 min.

So far we've broken at least 2 if not 3 decent support levels.

The options volume jumped today so it will be interesting to see if this was part of a big burn on OP-EX.

ES UPDATE

 The overnight ES has been long term negative as you saw earlier today.

The short term is not hitting new leading negative lows.

Market Upate

From the emails I see many of you beat me to the punch...

I believe Europe is closed now. I'll touch on that more in a little bit.

Here's the current updates.

 DIA 1 min

 DIA 2 min

 DIA 5 min-the DI looks like the weakest, I believe it''s because this was primarily an ES move, the other averages are just floating with ES.

 ES continued negative divergence from the overnight melt-up caused by a 4th day of ECB intervention in the Italian bond markets.

 FXE/Euro 2 min

 FXE 5 min

 FXE 10 min

QQQ 2 min

 IWM 2 min

 SPY 1 min

SPY 2 min

I'd like to see the 5 min go negative across the board, but it seems like many of you already got in near the top so you don't have much risk on an day trade-probabilities or minimum risk-either works, best when they both work. Seems we'll be headed n that direction.

Intraday Trade

 SPY is pretty close to resistance at the 300 ma

 ES remains negative

SPY 1 min

All of this is looking good for an intraday short, especially with the market up 1.8% at 10:30 in the morning. If you are interested in an intraday fade on this move, email me.

Intraday Trade

300 SMA

Watch for a road block at the daily 300 m.a.

This might even make for a nice intraday short.

Opening Gap

Overnight someone sent me this email called the scariest chart ever.

 As for our gap this morning, it comes courtesy of the European Central Bank out for the 4th day buying Italian bonds as they collapsed and the yield went even higher.

 Here's the ES 1 min

And ES 5 min.

This is one gap that  very much doubt will hold.

 ES EOD 1 min 3C did a good job of identifying the intraday bounce off the lows, as was posted in an SPY update there was the start of a negative divergence once the bounce got under way, that is reflected in this chart as well at the red square, which led to a slight pullback within the bounce and then a positive divergence (second white arrow) that finished the bounce up. There's a red arrow at the far right, but actually 3C is more in line there.

 This is the 5 min ES (I've noticed divergences in ES are more powerful, a 5 min divergence is probably more like a 10 min divergence in regular hours on something like the SPY.)  We have two relative price points that are the same, one from very early this morning, probably around 5 or 6 a.m. and the intraday high during regular hours. There's a negative divergence between the 2 points, so that's a relative negative divergence and it's probably somewhat meaningful being it went negative during regular hours when the ES volume is much higher, so that would be a stronger signal of distribution given the much heavier volume.

This is the 15 min ES (probably closer to a 30 min chart in the regular market on something like the SPY).Again there's a negative divergence in regular hours at the same 2 relative price points, so once again, distribution during regular hours when the volume is running much higher is a significant point to keep in mind. So what this shows us is a bounce during regular hours that was used for distribution, which as I pointed out last night can be selling or short selling as both actions register as a sale on the tape.

Market action during Op-Ex week (tomorrow) is usually choppy on it's own, we also have what I would call a top, which is almost always choppy and volatile. It can be helpful to use some technical tools to keep focused on the trend rather then the intraday or day to day chop.

Here's a simple moving average on a 60 min chart of the SPY, which reminds me of a saying, "The trend is your friend until it starts to bend at the end". Clearly the moving average depicted an uptrend which is easy enough, but now when the market is choppy, it is showing more of a lateral trend. If you remember my article about the SPY and the accumulation that it accrued during the 10+ week trading range, it made it very easy for the market to turn up in to this rally, very quickly in a "V" bottom. If you understood that article, then you probably understand that it was a lot of shares to be distributed and to start a short position, there would have been no accrual of shares short, meaning it would take more time and a lateral trending environment is often where this kind of underlying action takes place.

ADX can also be used to identify the end of a trend when it crosses above 40 and then turns back down below 40. The current reading of 18 shows a market that has no strong trend-lateral isn't considered a trend with ADX.

A Linear Regression channel is also helpful in a few ways, first it defines the break of a stable trend and secondly, there tends to be a "Kiss the channel goodbye" effect after a trend breaks and before it reverses, This is a steep channel, but the day  or hour rather, marked at the red arrow shows a move that was probably pretty close to the bottom of the channel, it also had a long upper wick on the candle (which is resistance-possibly from the LN channel) and heavy volume, which is indicative of churning-another spot distribution is often found. The opposite of churning in an accumulation area would be capitulation.

While we have several indications above that the 18th at 4 pm was a churning event, we can also look at  3C during that same period and as expected, there's a leading negative divergence in to that rally that created the churning on the chart above this one.

As far as some other indications, MoneyStream is a good money flow indicator, similar to 3C, however it rarely gives a signal so I don't use it often, but when it does give a signal, they are usually pretty solid. The more pieces that fit, the stronger your analysis.

As you can see, MS gave 2 signals at the top, but even the last 1 which 3C was very clear about, isn't that distinct if you are not use to looking for divergences. However the current MS signal is pretty clear. I drew a trendline as a point of reference and just like 3C, if there were accumulation or even flat confirmation, MS would mimic price, instead price makes a slight new high for the consolidation while MS trends down, making a new low as it goes.

I'll be back with more in a little bit.

SPXU Chart Request

SPXU is the UltraPro Short for the S&P-500

 Today's short term 1 min action-leading positive, this is the kind of day where I want to add to a position like this or start one.

 SPXU 5 min Leading positive, again almost any day this week in the lower white box, makes for a decent place to add on a high probability move, with minimal risk.

 15 min leading positive, it went negative earlier at the start of the rally around Oct. 4th

The 30 min chart is leading as well.

 I like to compare as much as I can, so here's the opposite of SPXU, UPRO which is the UltraPro Long S&P-500

If there's decent confirmation, it should look roughly the opposite of SPXU above.

 UPRO 1 min seeing distribution in to today's bounce.

 The 15 min is leading negative, whereas SPXU 15 min is leading positive.

And the 30 min UPRO is leading negative, the opposite of SPXU.