GLD Request

 GLD 2 min relative negative

 GLD 3 min leading negative

 GLD 5 min strong relative negative

 GLD 15 min relative negative.

The 30 min chart still suggests that trades in GLD should be from the short side.

I don't personally see any VERY strong signals here in which I would want to take a new position unless it was a very small, speculative position.

I still have some open GLD July $155 puts which I'll leave open with the charts the way they are, but I would not personally want to open a new position at this time.

ES Update

ES negative on the open, sending ES lower in the early a.m. with a short term positive divergence at the lows of the day and now this move with the SPY out of the triangle shows no 3C support. This would usually suggest a pullback in ES, however we still have some 2, 3 and 5 min positives in the market so we may very well see more upside before the day is through, I still view this as a noise move and nothing substantial, although it can most probably be used for tactical entries or exits.

CONtEXT for ES is nearly perfectly in line (between ES and the CONTEXT model)

Market Update

Well here's the SPY move talked about in this post just about 45 mins. ago.

"SPY Tringle, I would think the most likely path here would be an upside break out as I have suspected we see for a short time since Friday, followed by a downside move (head fake reversal as we so commonly see)."

And the move in the VXX /UVXY talked about just after the SPY post...

"Based on the SPY analysis, for the VXX and UVXY, you can more or less just flip SPY expectations, meaning a short term pop out of the SPY triangle to the upside should send UVXY and VXX lower intraday or however long this shorter term pop lasts, I don't see it as much more than a head fake and some noise."


Despite the move up in the SPY from the triangle, FB is moving as expected (at least the short term analysis), we'll follow this one as well...

'" Intraday FB seems to be rounding over to pullback or consolidate."


As for the SPY intraday charts that show a positive divergence and suggested a short term move higher today, there isn't much change, the 1 min is still largely in line, the 2, 3 and 5 min are still in a leading positive position. Once these start to go negative, I'd say the move in the SPY, which appears to be a short term (intraday-today) move to do some backing and filling) move, will be ending and we'll start moving toward a deeper pullback in the market. This could offer some opportunities in positions such as VXX/ UVXY long or the averages on a short term short/put trade.

From MainStream Press...

The article from the AP goes on...

"France's government has sold short-term bonds at negative interest rates for the first time, a sign of investor confidence despite concerns about French debts and the wider eurozone."

Despite the dropping rates, France's economic outlook is stagnant. President Francois Hollande said Monday that growth in the first half of this year is expected to be "nil."

Yields, or borrowing rates, have been falling on French medium and long-term bonds in auctions over the past couple of months, as investors flock to the perceived safety of Europe's larger economies.

In a sale Monday, the treasury sold three-month bonds at -0.005 percent, and six-month bonds at -0.006 percent. The treasury agency says it's the first time they have registered negative yields.

From CNBC

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.


In May, Roubini predicted four elements – stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran - would come together to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.

“(The) 2013 perfect storm scenario I wrote on months ago is unfolding,” Roubini said on Twitter on Monday.

UVXY / VXX

This was the quick 1 day trade in UVXY calls closed out Friday on expectations of a move up (however brief) in the market, which would send UVXY down, so I closed that position at a 23% gain Friday.

I see we are getting that SPY breakout I spoke of just a couple of posts ago right now.

Here are the VXX charts which tends to give a little better signals than UVXY...

 It's no coincidence that VXX has a similar triangle to the SPY as there's a pretty good inverse correlation between the two, as mentioned in the last post, we'd expect a short term move down in VXX / UVXY and we are seeing that now.

 The 1 min chart in VXX, like the SPY is also in line.

 Just as the SPY intraday shorter charts like the 2 min have positive divergences suggesting that breakout move higher and possibly in to the gap, VXX shows the mirror opposite, this is why I closed the profitable position Friday.

 However as we move to the 3 min chart we are already seeing some positive activity in VXX, this is in line with expectations from the last post.

 The 5 min is also seeing migration of that positive divergence.

Just as the SPY 15 min is negative, the VXX and UVXY below are both positive.

I would suspect after a brief move down in VXX / UVXY we will see a move up that lasts as long as a market pullback. This move down may be a good opportunity to start a new long position in UVXY or VXX, although I view both as very volatile and speculative. I'd make sure my risk management reflects their nature.

UVXY / VXX

Based on the SPY analysis, for the VXX and UVXY, you can more or less just flip SPY expectations, meaning a short term pop out of the SPY triangle to the upside should send UVXY and VXX lower intraday or however long this shorter term pop lasts, I don't see it as much more than a head fake and some noise.

With the 15 min SPY chart negative, the path of least resistance is a pullback, which would benefit UVXY and VXX, however I do expect we'll see a little downside in both as the SPY makes an intraday foray in to the gap area left from Friday.

I'll post some charts in the next post.

SPY Update

I'm also going to update the VXX/UVXY, however having some idea of what the SPY may do gives us some idea as to what the volatility ETFs will do as they trade inversely to the SPY.

 SPY Tringle, I would think the most likely path here would be an upside break out as I have suspected we see for a short time since Friday, followed by a downside move (head fake reversal as we so commonly see).

 The 1 min SPY chart isn't doing much at all intraday, it's more or less nearly perfectly in line with price.

 It is beyond the 1 min chart, but still on the intraday short term charts like this 2 min where we see the leading positive divergence suggesting that quick move up in to the gap (whether a partial or complete fill).

 The 2 min chart intraday does look more positive than the 1 min chart intraday as it has a leading positive component to it.

 Overall though, the negative divergence on the 15 min chart should trump the shorter term positives and ultimately pull this market back more as we have been expecting.

The 15 min chart intraday is in line with price, but as you can see above the trend is in a leading negative position, suggesting a decent size pullback.

FB Update

Last Friday's FB update showed a couple of things 1) the pullback or consolidation I was looking for in FB and positive divergences building in to that area which is what I hoped to see to enter a new FB long, but on some consolidation.

Lets take a look today as FB is definitely in an interesting spot...

 A large FB ascending Triangle, it is ironic because the lower support line of the triangle is where I expected FB to pullback to.

 Today intraday on the 60 min chart FB is up 3+% from Friday. The real move in FB is a breakout above resistance shown above.

 Normally in a market environment (generally speaking) like this, I'd expect a false breakout and then a deeper pullback and then after gathering some strength on the pullback, a breakout. This is a hard call to make because the technical price pattern is so obvious, yet there are still so many FB haters out there.

 Intraday FB seems to be rounding over to pullback or consolidate.

 The 60 min chart has improved in FB and I might consider taking a long position or partial position in FB without any leverage until this becomes more clear.

 The 15 min chart also shows improvement as FB consolidated sideways through time rather than a pullback through price-either works.

 Intraday the 2 min chart is leading negative, looking like FB will indeed pullback from these highs today, depending on if it does and what the pullback looks like, I may decide to enter a long, non-leveraged position in FB.

 The 3 min chart is seeing migration of the weakness coming from the 2 min.

As is the 5 min. So now it's time to be [patient, see if FB pulls back and see if we get some positive divergences that suggest FB is getting ready to make a run for a stage 2 breakout-this is where you generally find the juicy trend.

Keep FB on your radar, it's getting interesting...

USO Update

Friday I closed the USO Aug. 33 Puts that were entered Thursday at a 30+% profit on the notion that we'd see a gap fill today or at least a partial gap fill.

Here's the update for USO which has started moving in to the gap...

 USO 5 min is positive from Friday, part of the reason for closing the put position at a profit, you have to be nimble with these trades.

 The longer term 15 min chart looks much like the rest of the market, it looks ready for a decent pullback and USO is disconnected with the FX legacy arbitrage, essentially rich compared to the normal correlation.

The 1 min chart intraday on the move higher is already showing some negative divergences, we aren't quite there with migration to the 2 min chart, but I'll be watching the USO 2-3 and 5 min charts for a new Put/short position entry which I believe we will get very soon, possibly today or tomorrow.

I'd assume this should be along the lines of a 3-5 day trade, although I still prefer to remain very nimble in this market environment when using leverage.

Just one to keep on the radar.

An Early Look at AA

Every once in a while we get some unique 3C readings come earnings season that are so out of whack with the market that it would seem as if earnings were leaked or smart money had a very good idea of which way the stock would trade on earnings (irregardless of a beat or miss as consensus and perception are the main catalysts that move stocks on earnings).

One earnings season I set out to show members this phenomena and picked I believe 22 stocks and posted the direction the 3C charts suggested they would trade in after earnings (these weren't predictions of earnings results, but rather how price would react which is not always immediately logical); of the 22 stocks that seemed to have some sort of leak, 19  traded as 3C suggested. To be clear I didn't pick 22 random stocks, but looked at many stocks and found approximately 22 that had signals in them that suggested something was going on, so call it a leak, better information, etc.

Being AA is set to kick off earnings after market, I thought I'd take a look at AA.

 AA's recent (and longer term) performance vs the SPY (white) has been lackluster, but one might say AA is forming a base.

 On the 1 min chart, AA is slightly more positive that the SPY, but I'm looking for something that really stand out and a 1 min divergence doesn't indicate to me any special attention being paid to Alcoa on inside knowledge.

 The 15 min AA chart looks similar to the market averages with a negative divergence, you can see a bout of accumulation in late June at the lows (which are also about in line with lows that have been established for over a month and may represent a possible sub-intermediate base) which was sold in to as prices gained ground.

 The SPY also looks similar, remember as I have been reminding  everyone, market correlation is very high right now. So I don't see anything special on the 15 min chart suggesting inside knowledge.

 The AA 60 min chart does have a positive divergence around the area that looks like a short term or sub-intermediate base.

The 60 min charts in the averages are in line, it's not until the 4 hour chart where the averages show leading positive divergences suggesting that they still have upside left in the sub-intermediate trend, so in this regard, AA does look a little better developed than the market as a whole, but it does not stand out enough that I would call this an earnings leak. It may be that AA shows better relative performance having spent some time in what looks like base building activity, when (or if) the sub-intermediate uptrend re-establishes itself.

As far as an earnings leak, at this point I would not think there's any strong hints of one in AA, however one earnings season what looked like an earnings leak and what turned out to be a successful earnings call in GOOG didn't appear until 15 minutes before the close with earnings after the close, so I will keep an eye on AA today in case a possible earnings trade materializes later in the day.