Every once in a while we get some unique 3C readings come earnings season that are so out of whack with the market that it would seem as if earnings were leaked or smart money had a very good idea of which way the stock would trade on earnings (irregardless of a beat or miss as consensus and perception are the main catalysts that move stocks on earnings).
One earnings season I set out to show members this phenomena and picked I believe 22 stocks and posted the direction the 3C charts suggested they would trade in after earnings (these weren't predictions of earnings results, but rather how price would react which is not always immediately logical); of the 22 stocks that seemed to have some sort of leak, 19 traded as 3C suggested. To be clear I didn't pick 22 random stocks, but looked at many stocks and found approximately 22 that had signals in them that suggested something was going on, so call it a leak, better information, etc.
Being AA is set to kick off earnings after market, I thought I'd take a look at AA.
AA's recent (and longer term) performance vs the SPY (white) has been lackluster, but one might say AA is forming a base.
On the 1 min chart, AA is slightly more positive that the SPY, but I'm looking for something that really stand out and a 1 min divergence doesn't indicate to me any special attention being paid to Alcoa on inside knowledge.
The 15 min AA chart looks similar to the market averages with a negative divergence, you can see a bout of accumulation in late June at the lows (which are also about in line with lows that have been established for over a month and may represent a possible sub-intermediate base) which was sold in to as prices gained ground.
The SPY also looks similar, remember as I have been reminding everyone, market correlation is very high right now. So I don't see anything special on the 15 min chart suggesting inside knowledge.
The AA 60 min chart does have a positive divergence around the area that looks like a short term or sub-intermediate base.
The 60 min charts in the averages are in line, it's not until the 4 hour chart where the averages show leading positive divergences suggesting that they still have upside left in the sub-intermediate trend, so in this regard, AA does look a little better developed than the market as a whole, but it does not stand out enough that I would call this an earnings leak. It may be that AA shows better relative performance having spent some time in what looks like base building activity, when (or if) the sub-intermediate uptrend re-establishes itself.
As far as an earnings leak, at this point I would not think there's any strong hints of one in AA, however one earnings season what looked like an earnings leak and what turned out to be a successful earnings call in GOOG didn't appear until 15 minutes before the close with earnings after the close, so I will keep an eye on AA today in case a possible earnings trade materializes later in the day.
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