Glad I found this chart-AAPL

When talking about some of the fundamental issues surrounding AAPL, from the death of Steve Jobs to battery technology placing a limit on smaller devices, to a range of other issues, the one that I mention most is the dividend AAPL declared, I often make reference to MSFT and how it was a strong growth stock like AAPL until it declared a dividend.

This chart shows you AAPL with MSFT overlaid, see what happens to MSFT after the dividend was declared.

This is MSFT in red going in to 2000 and at the top and AAPL presently, I bet you can guess where the dividend was declared, any way, MSFT never became a growth stock again after that.

Risk Asset Update

 Yields really coming undone as op-ex passed.

 Long term I didn't realize how dislocated yields are from the SPX, as you can see on the last divergence, Yields act like a magnet for the SPX and they tend to revert to the mean like we saw at the June low.

 The $AUD is out of sync intraday, but more importantly,

 It's really dislocated , this was almost perfectly in sync several weeks ago.

 The Euro also dislocated, long term it's much worse than even the Yields dislocation.

 HYG in yellow never made a higher high, it's hard to see the scaling because both have to fit on the same chart, but at the start of the red trendline, HYG Credit should have made higher highs with the SPX, it didn't and even went the opposite direction.

 This Histogram shows the dislocation/scaling a bit better, you can see credit positive at the June lows and then falling off in to the move up until it is severely dislocated again.

 High Yield Junk Credit also didn't make a higher high with the SPX.


 Again the Histogram shows the worsening dislocation or negative divergence between credit that should rally with the market and the SPX.

 Intraday Energy isn't keeping momentum with the SPX, it's not even close to the opening highs.

 Financials have seen downside momentum at each pass of strength intraday in the SPX, that should give you a hint about what the underlying action is in Financials.

 And Tech which was strong earlier is giving up momentum, unable to follow the SPX to former intraday highs

Sector rotation this afternoon is changing subtlety, but surely. Risk on sectors such as Financials, Energy, Industrials, Tech and Discretionary are all rotating out, only Basic Materials is hanging in there. The Defensive flight to safety sectors of Healthcare, Utilities and Staples are rotating in.

Update 2-charts

Here's a somewhat random sampling

 DIA 2 min trend

 3 min over the last 2 days

 ES looks like it's going to make another new lower low in 3C.

 This is a leading divergence in the Q's, just today.


 This SPY leading negative of just today is one of the steepest.

 Also AAPL, inred, just today on a breakout new high, VERY High probability head fake move.

 The Euro just today

 GLD the last 2 days, these are some of the steepest leading negative divergences I have seen.

 The VXX Short Term Volatility, it looks like someone is betting big on a lot of volatility, this moves opposite the market, so this would be a negative sign for the market.

 Energy with an already impressive negative divergence, the last 2 days is just as I said before, I haven't seen many this bad.

 Tech leading negative really bad and look where it's happening. Another high probability head fake move.


Tech intraday only

Market Update 1

Intraday momentum is getting REALLY bad, this looks ready to break. Charts coming.

TECS Update

TECS is the new Technology 3X Bear ETF that replaced TYP.

 3 min trend seeing a lot of momentum the last few days

 As has the 5 min in the same period.

 Overall the 15 min looks good, but...

Considering the Trend Confirmation, the first base and now the second base ("W") the 60 min chart looks the best.

Quick Market Update

Whatever positives were on the earlier charts (even though they were in the context of a bearish environment), they are rapidly dissipating.

 DIA 3 min

 QQQ 2 min

SPY 1 min

ES leading negative below all overnight and Friday lows.

GLD Charts

Other than the fundamental reason behind a bearish position on GLD which is a little involved, this is exactly what I look for on a head fake move.

 All 3 timeframes leading negative right at the breakout move, this is high probability, if I don't take a signal like this, then there's no signal worth taking.

 2 min trend

3 min trend.

Adding to GLD Sept $157 Puts

Tech-Industry Group

I have mentioned often that the primary driver of any given stock on any given day is market directionality, the second most influential force is Industry directionality or rotation. As Tech broke down, at the exact same time we saw weakness in GOOG and AAPL.

 Tech, not quite there yet, we want to see a break below support first in the $30.60 area.


 AAPL's momentum has faded, it's open to a reversal, breaking support levels will cause downside momentum to pick up.

At the same time GOOG turned down from its triangle head fake breakout.

AAPL Update

If I could, yes I would and here too, I'm already full size in the equity and options models portfolios and feel just fine with it.

Here's the update...

 Going in to about June, we had 3 trend assumptions based on the charts, the first was the smallest, that was to be a decent pullback, maybe create a head fake low followed by a very strong move up, this move up would be very impressive, it needed to be to give bulls confidence to enter the market, we even talked about it potentially hitting new highs, that's what we are seeing now, it seems Draghi's market pumping comments were right about the time the pullback should have come. The Last trend assumption was the primary trend emerging in a strong bear move down. AAPL has done what we expected to see in trend 2. However you can see there isn't massive institutional involvement on the long side, the volume is so out of character you can just see something is not right with this picture.

 Here's the long's biting on the key levels, these will be key on a move down as well.

 Intraday 1 min AAPL i running out of steam

 2 min shows heavy distribution of today's move.


 5 min shows the exact look of a head fake move and what institutional money does on one.

The 30 min chart from confirmation to what was a sharp negative divergence at the first top to a much, much worse negative divergence now.