Monday, August 20, 2012

Risk Asset Update

 Yields really coming undone as op-ex passed.

 Long term I didn't realize how dislocated yields are from the SPX, as you can see on the last divergence, Yields act like a magnet for the SPX and they tend to revert to the mean like we saw at the June low.

 The $AUD is out of sync intraday, but more importantly,

 It's really dislocated , this was almost perfectly in sync several weeks ago.

 The Euro also dislocated, long term it's much worse than even the Yields dislocation.

 HYG in yellow never made a higher high, it's hard to see the scaling because both have to fit on the same chart, but at the start of the red trendline, HYG Credit should have made higher highs with the SPX, it didn't and even went the opposite direction.

 This Histogram shows the dislocation/scaling a bit better, you can see credit positive at the June lows and then falling off in to the move up until it is severely dislocated again.

 High Yield Junk Credit also didn't make a higher high with the SPX.


 Again the Histogram shows the worsening dislocation or negative divergence between credit that should rally with the market and the SPX.

 Intraday Energy isn't keeping momentum with the SPX, it's not even close to the opening highs.

 Financials have seen downside momentum at each pass of strength intraday in the SPX, that should give you a hint about what the underlying action is in Financials.


 And Tech which was strong earlier is giving up momentum, unable to follow the SPX to former intraday highs

Sector rotation this afternoon is changing subtlety, but surely. Risk on sectors such as Financials, Energy, Industrials, Tech and Discretionary are all rotating out, only Basic Materials is hanging in there. The Defensive flight to safety sectors of Healthcare, Utilities and Staples are rotating in.

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