TQQQ Entry and Charts

Here's the actual time the order was place for the equity model portfolio...

 The fill should come in right at that break just below the support level, which if it holds, I couldn't ask for a better entry. In situations like this, when positioning on an expected reversal, I rather phase in to the positions, I don't have much risk on the initial entry and have room to add at either much better underlying tone to the trade or better underlying tone with lower prices (better prices/less risk).

The NASDAQ futures show that exact break of support which lasted a minute, to be at a positive divergence, even though the intraday 1 min futures chart is sloppy, that divergence can be made out fairly easy.

 This is the small move in TQQQ I'm trying to capture (positive divergence 5 min leading) and just using the QQQ alone doesn't offer enough profit potential.

 TQQQ (3x long QQQ) was also positive intraday at the order entry.

 I like to confirm using a totally different ETF that has different volume which can give different signals, so I used SQQQ to confirm which would be the 3x short QQQ which has been doing well lately, but as you can see, at the time of the order, SQQQ was negative and not in confirmation of the price trend.

In fact...

 The longer term intraday SQQQ charts are negative (this is positive for the QQQ and TQQQ) like this 3 min

 This 5 min

 And this 15 min, and that's about along the lines of the timeframe the TQQQ trade is meant to capture, a few days.

 When you look at the long term 60 min SQQQ chart, it is very positive and confirms what we've been seeing in the market, the bigger picture is quite negative (remember SQQQ is a bear ETF so it looking good is negative for the market)

That also confirms the negative long term divergence in the QQQ seen here. I hope this isn't too confusing, but I'm just trying to capture an upside bounce using TQQQ while the longer term is very negative, after any upside bounce, I'll be looking to add bigger, longer term short positions.

Going with TQQQ long -Entering first half of position

I decided to go with the 3x leveraged TQQQ long (3x QQQ), this will be a speculative position similar in size to the UCO trade which I'm glad I closed when I did. So I'll be entering 1/2 the position now and another half later.

I figure the total commitment of portfolio will be about 10% to the trade.

USO / UCO Follow Up

Here are the charts that caused me to close the UCO (leveraged long oil) for now, it looks like a pullback is coming and I'd rather not sit through a pullback in a leveraged trade if I can avoid it. On the plus side, it looks like it will be a constructive pullback and offer a better entry for another run higher.

 This was a speculative position to start with thus the smaller trade size, but a 9% profit in 2 days isn't too bad.

 UCO's 1 min chart is leaking off badly here, it may have some more upside, but this isn't the time to get greedy.

 The 3 min chart is seeing migration of that negative 1 min chart and not confirming this morning's move higher.

 The 10 min is just starting to see some negative migration as well as it didn't confirm today's move either.

However, with this 60 min positive divergence (small base) that is yet to really break out, I suspect I'll be looking to re-enter the trade long shortly (a couple of days maybe for a pullback).

Closing Out UCO For Now

I'm closing the UCO long oil trade for now, this is why I chose a leveraged ETF, it was a quick trade that I want to be able to trade around. On a pullback with positive divergences I'll add it back as I think it has more to go, but for a couple of days, a 9+% profit is decent and I don't want to lose that.

Futures

Futures look choppy as they have all night, however when that happens there's usually some underlying trade going on as HFT's scalping is hard to identify direction on short term charts, but as always, "When in doubt, go to the longer term charts" and there we see something interesting along the lines of that S&P bear flag head fake move that locks in the shorts and then lets their covering do the work.

We're in an area I'd consider a leveraged long market index like TQQQ or URTY as a short term trading vehicle to take advantage of the signals on the futures charts as well as other signals building or in place.

As a matter of fact, I'm going to be looking for a speculative entry in 2 parts in one of the leveraged market bull ETFs, maybe UPRO, URTY, something along those lines.  I'll post them when I find them, but the first will be soon.

Here are the futures charts for the S&P and NASDAQ minis

ES-SPX

 Like I said, the 1 min charts are very choppy like trade, likely HFTs / algos muddying up the water, but go out longer...

 5 min ES leading positive right at the flat area where accumulation is most often seen.It's always the dull area of the market that is the most important.

 Check out the ES 15 min chart, leading positive at a new 3C higher high.

 And the 30 min ES, negative from 10/5 and now at a new leading positive high.

NASDAQ futures...

 Again the 1 min is very choppy, but the overnight range has also been narrow.

 However the NQ 5 min needs no annotation.

 The 15 min negative at the 5th of October and leading positive in a big way now.

NQ 30 min.

These are solid signals on important timeframes, to me, very much worth taking a long position and I don't think it matters too much which ETF is chosen as everything is so highly correlated, but I lean toward the S&P or NDX on a leveraged basis as this is for a shorter term trade of maybe several days.

Early Indications

It's no secret that the Dow/DIA has had the worst underlying trade all week, there have been days this week where not a single definitive positive divergence could be found, it's having a change in character.

The DIA's support from yesterday was the same as the close, the run below that this morning on the 1 min chart produced a leading positive divergence which for the DIA this week is different. However more importantly...

The DIA 10 min chart is showing migration of small divergences that have accrued on the 10 min chart, it's leading positive at today's open and has made its first higher high since it went negative last week.

The SPY 1 min positive divergence looks right for that range yesterday, that's where we most often see divergences, in flat ranges, but it is also leading positive on the open as the red trendlines represent the close and lower support from yesterday.

Scratch that last post

Because of the holiday for most government offices Monday on Columbus day, the EIA Petroleum status was moved forward to tomorrow at 11:00 a.m., the Natural Gas report from EIA will remain at the usual time at 10:30 tomorrow.

EIA Petroleum Report coming-Be Ready

If you are in the USO/UCO long trade, be ready for the EIA report at 10:30, if there's any bad reaction I'll take profits in UCO long and re-establish the position later, seeing its up another 2.15% today

+350% Return on ROI- just from a concept

If I could give you a winning trade or teach you what I know about concepts you can apply to your own trading style, while the guru thing is fun and often trade ideas make for great examples, I'd rather give you something you can apply for a lifetime. That's why I want to share this member's email with you from yesterday.

Tina has been with us for several years, she's learned the concepts about how the market uses Technical Analysis and your emotions against you, but especially Technical Analysis because technical traders are so predictable; it makes Wall Street's job easy and makes Wall Street more predictable if you understand what patterns they will manipulate.

As for the email from yesterday from Tina...

"SPY - Nailed It, Again!
So, about that SPY bear flag... great call and I profitted wildly  on an overnight weekly SPY put.

 I took it Friday after we failed to make a new high (weekly SPY 145 put)... I intended on selling EOD, but saw the bear flag and was expecting a break below as a shake out (learned that from you)... On Monday, we rode that lower trendline up, clinging to the line, so I was certain we'd break down on Tuesday, especially after your validating post stating the same... I waited it out and bingo!  ROI: 350%... Wow... stopped to calc it out... I use 3Cs to identify divergences, then I use RSI divergences for my entry/exits; I take the trade on the 10m.

Recognizing that bear flag and understanding it'd be used to trap shorts (I'm confident that's what happened today), the trade was nicely profitable."

This is what she was talking about...

The break below the bear flag of the SPY which locks in shorts, some will enter on the bear flag, but most because of what Technical Analysis teaches, will wait for confirmation or chase the trade.

The "Validating post", I believe was from Monday's Wrap (I believe or it may have been an intraday update) and referring to this chart and commentary...

This is from the post showing a 15 min SPY chart hugging the bottom of the bear flag and the commentary that followed this chart....

"it's always possible for a head fake move below the flag to get shorts to commit on confirmation of the flag as well as the channel."

I always love to hear about member's lessons or success stories, but I especially love to hear that member's are putting the concepts to work to profit in their own trading.

Congrats Tina and thanks for letting me share your trade.

Early Stop Run-AAPL > Friday's Close

After a 1% down day in the SPX, the early orders that are placed on limit/etc by retail that has a real job are bound to be sell/short orders, that's why early trade until about 10:00-10:30 has a lot of noise and manipulation.

It looks like the stops from yesterday's lows were run, but I'm not so sure this negative tone is going to keep up before the bounce, even if it smells like a dead cat, comes knocking (which I have a story to share with you coming up).

 AAPL's 10 min chart is in good position now for the volatility shakeout and AAPL is above Friday's close.

 QQQ stop runs this morning on a nice positive opening divergence

SPY also taken just below yesterday's close (first support) with a positive opening.