Adding Spec. Long Position in AMD

I have a very small open position there which was more for tracking at an 18% gain, I have a feeling AMD is going to be one of the Cats and Dogs type trades, probably won't last long, but has a decent chance of making a solid gain.

Remember this is a speculative position as a long and a cheap stock like this, I'd probably plan on a stop around $2.40, but you have to decide what feel right for you.

Trade Review

Well at least we're not day trading. I like the URTY and TQQQ positions, I think (based on what I see now) they have more upside to go and as mentioned, I'd probably be looking to add them back at lower prices, but depending on the environment I might chose a different tool.

In any case, the positions closed out like this...

 TQQQ filled at 56.62, a little off the highs of the day, but still a 4% gain for less than a day

URTY filled $.08 off the high of the day so far, note those are MARKET ORDERS, I've placed a lot of trade, when I first started trading full time and doing NOTHING else, I was making 100 trades a week on an average week, my broker even lowered my commission of which they made an absolute killing. I found that limit orders rarely got a much of a better fill, they cost me more and that killed the better fill that they did get and most of all, when I wanted out, a limit order couldn't guarantee that, a market order will.

In any case, this is why I decided to take the trades off for now (I didn't see much point in just watching these go down)... The 15 min. charts are the reason I didn't play the downside either, a volatile market can surprise you so I try to stay with probabilities (as they relate to the position).

First of all, my momentum indicators were going south pretty quick.

 QQQ 2 min is really ugly leading negative here.

 The IWM divergence moved to the next timeframe at 3 mins, it doesn't look as bad as the Q's, but it's a longer timeframe which accounts for more.

 ES went negative on the intraday chart as well.

 This is a 5 min NASDAQ futures chart, it doesn't look like there's much to see here, but the weekly option trades we have been pulling off have come from the 5 min futures charts and a negative divergence (for a Put trade) started like this, price would need to move higher or start to round over and 3C would need to go lower; one bridge at a time.

The ES VWAP has been showing extremely strong momentum as it walks the upper SD of VWAVP, I figured it was likely that it come back down toward VWAP itself in the middle.

Closing URTY and TQQQ Longs

I'll likely look for a new entry later.

Day Trade

If you wanted to, I thin you could pull off a long UVXY trade here for a market pullback, but you'd want to be out by the time the pullback is ending.

Charts

These are the chart suggesting a pullback...

 DIA 2 min intraday

 QQQ 2 min intraday

 IWM 2 min intraday

SPY 1 min intraday

All suggest an intraday pullback

Quick Market Update

I'll post some charts, but it looks like an intraday pullback is coming, I'll see if there's any way we can use it, but looks pretty standard right now.

PCLN Example Short Candidate

When we can, I prefer to find trade candidates in advance, lay out what I'd like to see happen if I think there's a good probability of that happening and if it happens, then we can enter the trade on our terms, the stock has come to us, we have a better entry and less risk.

I have kept my eye on PCLN for a number of reasons, but now I believe it may be getting close to an actionable position, especially if the market cooperates for a brief time.

 I like to start with a weekly chart, in PCLN's case, the tone of trade is relevant in this situation since about 2009, before that PCLN was advancing on increasing volume which is healthy, after it is advancing on decreasing volume, not so healthy.

Also in the yellow box PCLN has made it's first lower high, we found out how important recognizing the early changes in a trend are the last few weeks with currencies which led to this week's sell-off.

 With a pretty wide Linear Regression channel on a weekly chart, PCLN pulled a Channel Buster in the red box, these always seem bullish, but they are a change in character that often leads to a fast move to the downside.

 On a daily basis, my De-Mark inspired indicator has shown a buy spot and two sell areas, Bollinger Bands look to be narrowing and that may be for a directional move, I'm kind of hoping it's an upside move we can use to enter PCLN shorts, I'll show you that below.


 The hourly chart in PCLN has broken down and is leading negative on a very important timeframe.

 The 30 min chart has done the same in the same area.

 As has the 15 min chart which saw a small accumulation area, but so far no confirmation of this gap up, there are several charts confirming weakness and that gap being unsupported is a further sign.

On a daily chart, I'd like to enter a short here on price strength, the red trendline would be one potential head fake breakout area PCLN might try for, we see these head fake or failed moves frequently before major reversals, there are two inks at the top right side of the site explaining Head-Fake moves.

The second area would be above the linear regression channel around the yellow box.

Basically we want to see if PCLN can make the breakout move and confirm that it is a head fake using 3C to see whether the move is confirmed or whether there's heavy selling in to the price strength, if there's selling, then we have a high probability, low risk short entry.

Keep PCLN on your radar.

URTY/TQQQ - IWM / NDX Update

Yesterday's long positions in URTY (3x long IWM) and TQQQ (3x long QQQ) also seem rather well timed. With volatility picking up (which means the moves up and down are likely to be exaggerated), I felt a little less leverage would be a better solution right now to ride out consolidations, possible pullbacks, etc while remaining not only hedged, but also making extra money on top of the hedge.

Excess leverage and volatility can be a lotto ticket, but I'd rather have consistent winning positions than a lotto ticket.

Here's the update for the underlying positions, QQQ and IWM and what I saw yesterday that I wasn't sure about, but felt strongly enough about it to go with the 3x leverage over the options.

 IWM 1 min is in line so far this morning, putting URTY at over a 3% gain this morning.

 The 3 min IWM chart is leading so the near term looks good here for more upside.

 This is what intrigued me yesterday, but I wasn't sure if I could trust it, that's a pretty big positive divergence on a 15 min chart, but considering volatility, I think this could be a true signal; if so then I don't want options as they wouldn't survive the entire move and thus not work as well as a hedge. Additionally with the increased volatility, there's no need for the increased leverage which is selling at a higher premium due to the volatility.

 Longer term though, I'm not fooled by a 15 min chart, this 30 min leading negative divergence is the trend's back broken.

 The Q's look like they could consolidate a bit in the area, TQQQ is up over 2% this morning so far.

 Just beyond at the 3 min chart, like the IWM it looks like there's more upside in the near future (as in today).

 Again that 15 min positive divergence that wasn't fully developed yesterday and I wasn't sure if it could be trusted, today it looks much more solid.

Again, the 60 min chart shows the trend's back is broken.

GLD Update

Closing Friday's GLD calls yesterday for a 60+% gain (one for 600%) looks to have been nearly perfect timing. We have a pullback and I want to open a new long GLD/ Call position, but I think it needs a little time before we do that, even though I think it's likely we see some bullish looking intraday movement, I'd stay patient with GLD and I wouldn't short it here as you'd be betting against some strong probabilities in a market that is seeing increasing volatility and short term unpredictability.

Here's the update for GLD...

 GLD's 2 min chart gave a good signal for a tactical exit yesterday.

 The 5 min chart shows some stronger underlying short term weakness.

 The 15 min chart though is what really makes me say, "Hold on".

This 30 min chart is what tells me we'll be long GLD again soon, I just think it has more consolidation to go first.

Dull Overnight

After flipping through the overnight news and markets, there really isn't much that's exciting to report or even market moving except maybe that Bernie is in front of the Senate again today. Sure, Italy sold 5 and 10 year paper at higher yields as would be expected, but nothing that really wasn't already there, perhaps that's why the market is so flat since yesterday.

Even the futures look a bit boring...

 ES 1 min with a small negative divergence that already sent price a bit lower.

NASDAQ futures with a positive divergence around 5 a.m.

Tight now the 5 min chart are nearly in line with price, ES is just starting to diverge a bit to the negative side, that might actually make some sense if we get a solid bounce for a day, maybe 2.