Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Trade Review

Well at least we're not day trading. I like the URTY and TQQQ positions, I think (based on what I see now) they have more upside to go and as mentioned, I'd probably be looking to add them back at lower prices, but depending on the environment I might chose a different tool.

In any case, the positions closed out like this...
 TQQQ filled at 56.62, a little off the highs of the day, but still a 4% gain for less than a day


URTY filled $.08 off the high of the day so far, note those are MARKET ORDERS, I've placed a lot of trade, when I first started trading full time and doing NOTHING else, I was making 100 trades a week on an average week, my broker even lowered my commission of which they made an absolute killing. I found that limit orders rarely got a much of a better fill, they cost me more and that killed the better fill that they did get and most of all, when I wanted out, a limit order couldn't guarantee that, a market order will.

In any case, this is why I decided to take the trades off for now (I didn't see much point in just watching these go down)... The 15 min. charts are the reason I didn't play the downside either, a volatile market can surprise you so I try to stay with probabilities (as they relate to the position).

First of all, my momentum indicators were going south pretty quick.

 QQQ 2 min is really ugly leading negative here.

 The IWM divergence moved to the next timeframe at 3 mins, it doesn't look as bad as the Q's, but it's a longer timeframe which accounts for more.

 ES went negative on the intraday chart as well.

 This is a 5 min NASDAQ futures chart, it doesn't look like there's much to see here, but the weekly option trades we have been pulling off have come from the 5 min futures charts and a negative divergence (for a Put trade) started like this, price would need to move higher or start to round over and 3C would need to go lower; one bridge at a time.

The ES VWAP has been showing extremely strong momentum as it walks the upper SD of VWAVP, I figured it was likely that it come back down toward VWAP itself in the middle.


No comments: