Taking on UVXY as trading position-Long

This is speculative, but I think it will work in the next day or two.

I can't even tell you how Ugly the underlying trade is now

GLD Charts

All of these timeframes are showing accumulation in to GLD's pullback today, remember this was the plan the whole time since GLD Calls were closed yesterday-"BUY THE PULLBACK!"

 GLD 2 min

 3 min

 5 min

 It's only because this 15 min chart hasn't moved yet that I went with a partial position, which should be filled out soon.

Long term still looks great...

30 min GLD

Entering Half Position April GLD $150 Calls

I'll probably look at the other half tomorrow.

Market Update-Plan

This is exactly why I wanted to grab those April Puts, when a market gets volatile like this, it gets more unpredictable, we had solid negative intraday divergences that would have turned the market or any asset south for hours, but it still went higher, we have CONTEXT at the biggest differential I've ever seen, no other risk assets are performing, as I said yesterday, this move up will be pure manipulation and it moves higher despite CONTEXT, that means it's just as unpredictable going the other way and can fall just as fast or faster and harder so the April Puts are kind of a safety net.

If I can, I prefer to try to hold out on adding or filling out short positions for maybe 1 more day, but I already have a significant presence built, more than enough and any add-to's now are just because the opportunity is so good.

Here's the update for the charts and hopefully this will give you a visual of what I just said.

 CONTEXT's ES model at a stunningly large differential, this means typical rally risk assets are not moving with the market, this is exactly what we see with market manipulation when there's no fundamental / underlying strength, just manipulation and it can't last that long.

 DIA 1 min is in line, this is the best looking short term chart.

 The more important 3 min is leading negative, for the market to move up with this divergence is the kind of extreme volatility and unpredictability that I was talking about yesterday, this week, last month, it's also a red flag of a change of character and they precede changes in trend.

Basically EVERYTHING WE EXPECTED FROM THE MARKET AS OF YESTERDAY IS PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW.

 DIA 10 min leading negative divergence, this has the parabolic move with no support that could send this down like a ton of rocks.

 DIA 15 min is showing the positive divergence that got us long yesterday-closed today, however this divergence that I thought would make the move last longer is already falling apart.

 QQQ 1 min in a leading neg. position.

 QQQ 2 min shows the positive we got long on yesterday and a leading negative today that is even below yesterday's 3C readings at the day's lows in price.

 QQQ 5 min leading negative, same situation as above

 The 15 min chart which is what I though would this move last 2 days, it is starting to lose it's positive qualities on the run up.

 QQQ 30 min is leading negative in to this run, even though it was positive and accumulated yesterday-this is the manipulation I am talking about.

 SPY 3 min leading negative

 5 min leading negative

 15 min is starting to fall behind, this was the most important chart for the upside.

As a reminder of the bigger picture, 30 min longer term SPY.

If I can, I'd like to hold out as long as possible, but the fact is even though I do believe the moves like this to the upside will be extreme like I said yesterday, I think in the big picture, even getting short here with additional upside possibly tomorrow really won't make any difference when we are several weeks down the road, a few percent so you have to weigh missing the move or trying to get the best entry possible

GOOG Trade Idea

This is the GOOG trade concept, unfortunately I'm already set with the GOOG short position so I can't add any more here, but if I could this is what I'd be considering and looking at.

 This yellow box is what I consider to be GOOG's breakout/HEAD-FAKE move, for such a breakout GOOG certainly hasn't been able to ad much to it in the way of follow through. If you don't understand the head fake concept, please read the links about it on the member's site, but we see these moves in approx. 80% of reversals to the upside or down.

 Because a new range or resistance area has been created, a move above that would also not be surprising, although the chart above is in my view the real head fake, the move above local resistance would just be a bonus like the way they hit all the VIX stops in the last 1/10th of a second of trade on 2/19 before the reversal on 2/20.


 This is the daily negative divergence, ever since the last top in September, GOOG has been unable to move to confirmation and instead remains leading negative.

 The 15 min chart shows a leading negative divergence too, guess where? Exactly where the break above resistance is, the head fake area, which would make sense because this is what a head fake is meant to do, bring in buyers on a breakout to new highs which allows Wall St. to sell or sell short in to higher prices and most importantly for their position sizes, DEMAND.

The first Trend Channel break would be around $780, you can wait until then, but I've been able to ride out GOOG for some time and never exceed a 2% portfolio loss. I might consider a partial position here if you like GOOG short and leave room to add in case the local highs are broken, then add to the position, but this has to be part of your risk management plan before you enter, not some sort of dollar cost averaging.

I don't see GOOG risk here as being very bothersome.

Going With April 20th QQQ $68 Puts

This is a full size position, if the market runs once more, Im okay and maybe even add.

I don't like the feel here, even if we get a run, this is deep divergence stuff.

Market Update

I see the Stock Market everywhere, I see it as a spiritual exercise, I see it as a form of human psychology, I'm an avid fisherman when I have the time to drive 1 mile to the ocean (pathetic right?) and I see it there. Sometimes you get a tricky fish and I love to fish for Snook, one moment it feels like you're snagged on the bottom and the next the fish is exploding out of the water throwing your hook.

Right now the short term charts of the market look horrible, so much so they have me a little concerned about the longer term charts as my opinion has been so far today that the market will pullback (short term charts) and make another advance (intermediate term charts) before it gives up the ghost (Long term charts).

I'm trying to decide because there are some positions we might be interested in as shorts up here like, GOOG, yes, GOOG.

So I'm looking at leading indicators, Credit is holding up pretty well intraday, some others like HIO and FCT are not.

The $AUD and Euro are not holding up well and the $USD is advancing intraday at least.

Yields are not holding, HY Credit is not holding and commodities are falling off the map.

Something seems VERY bearish here and now.

I'm going to look some more, but I might be inclined to look at a weekly Put on any of the averages, but have the expiration be next week, not this week or maybe even a monthly.

Oh, take a look at CONTEXT...

a nearly 27 point differential, that's the biggest we have seen.

ZNGA Follow Up

ZNGA filled at $3.53  for a nearly +53% gain.

I still REALLY like ZNGA, I have been going back and forth looking at it all day with a really nice gain earlier, I finally applied my final decision logic to it which is, "Based on what you see and know now, not what you think might happen, would you buy ZNGA here and now?"

Considering it was just closed, you can probably guess what the answer was, but I really look forward to an opportunity to pick up ZNGA in the future hopefully at a better price and a larger position.

Closing ZNGA Long

I HATE to do it because I like this one, but I wouldn't buy it here and even though it's small, it's still a 50+% gain.