This is exactly why I wanted to grab those April Puts, when a market gets volatile like this, it gets more unpredictable, we had solid negative intraday divergences that would have turned the market or any asset south for hours, but it still went higher, we have CONTEXT at the biggest differential I've ever seen, no other risk assets are performing, as I said yesterday, this move up will be pure manipulation and it moves higher despite CONTEXT, that means it's just as unpredictable going the other way and can fall just as fast or faster and harder so the April Puts are kind of a safety net.
If I can, I prefer to try to hold out on adding or filling out short positions for maybe 1 more day, but I already have a significant presence built, more than enough and any add-to's now are just because the opportunity is so good.
Here's the update for the charts and hopefully this will give you a visual of what I just said.
CONTEXT's ES model at a stunningly large differential, this means typical rally risk assets are not moving with the market, this is exactly what we see with market manipulation when there's no fundamental / underlying strength, just manipulation and it can't last that long.
DIA 1 min is in line, this is the best looking short term chart.
The more important 3 min is leading negative, for the market to move up with this divergence is the kind of extreme volatility and unpredictability that I was talking about yesterday, this week, last month, it's also a red flag of a change of character and they precede changes in trend.
Basically
EVERYTHING WE EXPECTED FROM THE MARKET AS OF YESTERDAY IS PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW.
DIA 10 min leading negative divergence, this has the parabolic move with no support that could send this down like a ton of rocks.
DIA 15 min is showing the positive divergence that got us long yesterday-closed today, however this divergence that I thought would make the move last longer is already falling apart.
QQQ 1 min in a leading neg. position.
QQQ 2 min shows the positive we got long on yesterday and a leading negative today that is even below yesterday's 3C readings at the day's lows in price.
QQQ 5 min leading negative, same situation as above
The 15 min chart which is what I though would this move last 2 days, it is starting to lose it's positive qualities on the run up.
QQQ 30 min is leading negative in to this run, even though it was positive and accumulated yesterday-this is the manipulation I am talking about.
SPY 3 min leading negative
5 min leading negative
15 min is starting to fall behind, this was the most important chart for the upside.
As a reminder of the bigger picture, 30 min longer term SPY.
If I can, I'd like to hold out as long as possible, but the fact is even though I do believe the moves like this to the upside will be extreme like I said yesterday, I think in the big picture, even getting short here with additional upside possibly tomorrow really won't make any difference when we are several weeks down the road, a few percent so you have to weigh missing the move or trying to get the best entry possible
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