Put URRE on you Long Watchlist

I has some work to do, but it got the pullback started, as it flattens out to a range and looks very dull, accumulation will pick up here and this should be good for another nice run.

UNG Update

I think UNG could see a shorter term pullback, I'm sticking with the long position and would like to add back the shares I recently sold on any short term weakness.

I'm also interested in checking out LNG, I think it's way overpriced, but it's coming down after a short term bounce, in fact it would probably make a nice pairs trade with UNG for a while (short LNG / long UNG) until it gets to a reasonable level.

The more reasonable CHK is also an interesting play on NG, I think both can be had for lower prices so they'll be on the watchlist.

UNG...

 1 min intraday, UNG looks like it will pullback, I've been waiting for that to add the shares recently closed to lock in some gains in anticipation of a pullback.

5 min looks great so I don't think it's much more than a corrective pullback.

UNG has ALWAYS been a long term trade idea, like an investment and this 2 hour chart shows why, how it's developed and how it is getting stronger.

I think it's a hold with an "add-to" on pullbacks.

GOOG As an Example

I already started a GOOG short equity (Core-longer term ) position, I left plenty of room to add to it at better prices and we are in the area. I'd consider a short term call position to ride a move higher that I think and thought yesterday, will be used to lock in the "Buy the Dip" crowd, they'll feel justified in buying the dip and at the same time, any shorts that jumped in yesterday will likely get knocked off.

For now though I  can't buy a GOOG short term (day or so-) call for this psychological warfare, on the other hand, I could enter or add to the equity short, but I think chances are good we can get a better entry, although no where near as important as it is with options.

So I'll wait on both, I'll show you why and what I will wait for. I will keep looking for some Hit and run trades that look favorable.

 The most important is the 60 min chart, above the red trendline is a head fake move and part of the top, note how negative 3C is, smart money has known for a long time, that is why we have these long signals of them selling and probably creating enormous short positions (by virtue of the size of the negative divergence) that is on par with a bubble this big, fed by F_E_D liquidity that is obviously going to be shrinking as they try to also keep the market from forming any more of an asset bubble.

This longer term view and the unprecedented size, because of the unprecedented US and Global Central bank and economic policies is not a good options trade, but an equity short can withstand the extreme market without seeing too bad of a drawdown. This is why this area in the big picture is fine for an equity short,, but we can get better positioning.

 The 15 min is telling us the strategic view is moving to the tactical execution, this is where we really want to get serious about building out those positions.

 5 min chart is not at a good risk/momentum area for a call trade for short term profits, but...

The 1 min chart suggests GOOG may pullback intraday or so, that will give us a better entry for a call position to ride the bounce, when that is closed, we'll be close to adding put positions as well as filling out the equity short or for new positions, entering equity shorts.

Patience, although I'll keep looking.

Let me reassure you, if the data changes, I'd gladly change my position, but the data has been overwhelming in the message of the market.

They say, "Price pays", but in a market like this, "Price also takes away". I wouldn't want any longer term longs as a waterfall sell-off will put them at 1-2 month lows on a gap opening. The risk reward profile for being long here anything but short term trades, is very dangerous.

Why do you think they want to lock in the "Buy the Dip " crowd? They want to convince them that after a day like yesterday, buying the dip like they have done the last 4 years is still the right thing to do, this will lock these longs in and keep them buying as the market goes down until they are carried out feet first.

Market Update

As suspected, TLT has come down, there are some small positives that should send the averages higher confirming the "Dip Buyers and locking them in.

TLT, although filled the gap, is already starting to accumulate again, it's too early to take a position, but it will come up again.

The market averages are accumulating, but as shown yesterday, the damage done is insurmountable, so these are great trading opportunities as well as Tactical entries for strategic short positions.

Our USO long should gain shortly.


I'll bring you more shortly, maybe some new trades.

Buying the Dip

It is amazing because there are so many red flags for so long and these retail twittertards just don't get it, they don't get what the F_E_D has been saying, what it did say yesterday.

More sentiment from the stream, again thanks to Sam...

"TIP of day OF goog breaks thru 890 runs to 900 in a flash"

"correection is over... load the boat lol"

"volatility coming out of the market, as usual before the holiday weekend"

"a good sign is that small caps not falling apart leading on the downside there is still hope for the bulls"

The key words here are "Hope", the thought that things are "as usual", "Correction is over".

I think the market will allow the dip buyers to hang themselves, that's why we entered some long-type positions and closed some short type positions, but not only will the market take out the dip-buyers (as I said, these people are run by emotion, not facts), in doing so it will run out any new shorts although it seems few of the "Momentum" traders jumped on that train so lets just call "Momentum Traders" what they really are, "Perma Bulls" that don't recognize that the element that drove the market higher for 4 years just said it's getting ready to back out.

Amazing ignorance, but great for us.

We have a nice Gain in GLD-This one is on you

I personally think GLD has some more base building before it really makes a strong upside move, but it is still very positive.

Whether or not to take the nice gains form GLD calls from yesterday which should be up between 25% and 30% today (or leveraged long ETFs) is up to you. On one hand I want to stay nimble and hit and run and think GLD has a bigger base to build, on the other, the market is increasingly unpredictable and the near term institutional timeframe of 5 mins is very strong.

I can only give you the charts...

 GLD's 5 min chart...This is still leading positive, the faster timeframes aren't telling me much yet. I only had a small position of a single contract I just closed.

The longer term 30 min chart shows the distribution sending GLD lower, an in line status on the trend down and accumulation starting on a 30 min chart which is huge, but for this to continue to accumulation this large of a base, GLD will have to come down to be accumulated and run in the lateral range in the white box.

We'll have plenty of opportunities. I'd just say, Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

AAPL TLT P/L , Sentiment and Rank

We have several members that feed me sentiment from monitoring the Stocktwits/Twitter Stream, is it any wonder with comments like today's that our rank is so high on this move? Don't miss the sentiment part-thanks again Sam.

First the P/L for yesterday's TLT and an AAPL put.

At the fill for the AAPL Puts, it's about a 15% gain

At the fill for the TLT Calls from yesterday, it's a +21.5% gain.

Like I said a couple of days ago, in this current market environment, we build out longer term equity positions and use guerilla hit and run tactics, in and out. Don't try to be a hero with the volatility coming our way.


Here is the current sentiment from our member who sends me updates, it seems No one saw this coming, which explains our rank for the Options Tracking Portfolio:

No one on my stream saw it coming. NO ONE!!!

"Rolled over calls to next week.

I was playing for a gap up in Apple this morning. I did not expect the overnight market/Apple dump.

and on and on."

Well, I'd say that "No one" saw it coming wasn't exactly true, but we're rarely on the stream. Again, you might be sick of hearing it, but one of my idols, the greatest equity traders that may have ever lived, Jesse Livermore from the early part of the 20th century (during the 1929 Crash) said (and I paraphrase),

"It wasn't me being right on the market, a lot of people were right, it was my sitting that made me money"

Meaning Jesse stuck with his convictions and wasn't run off by emotions and price which as I always say, "Is deceptive". Other traders weere right too, they were just run off from price/emotions.

There's immediate gratification and then there's trading and investing with the big picture in mind, I try to give you a little of both.

Our weekly gain doubled since yesterday and the monthly even, for the entire month of May, despite having a couple of worthless expirations last week, is way up there too.

This week's rank, #4 of 760 portfolios. Remember too that most of these people are swinging for the fences with huge positions so if they are right, they are right big time. Our positions are only around 5% of portfolio value, they are much smaller which means we have a lot more moving in the right direction.

Weekly Ranking

Monthly Ranking

Closing TLT Calls as well

I'm Back & Taking Profits on the June AAPL 445 Puts

The AAPL short equity position stays in place, I'll look for a new option entry for AAPL.

Pre-Market

To say all heck broke loose would be an understatement.

The previously stellar performing Nikkei started the session with JGB futures halted on the open as they went limit down, not too long after the Nikkei lost over 1100 points, swinging 9% from the highs to the lows and closing down -7.32%.

After that Chinese PMI came out and sent the country's manufacturing sector in to contraction for the first time since 2012.

All other major markets across the world closed down between 1.9% and 7.32%, most in the -2.6% range.

Our Calls in GLD should be happy, here's what gold did overnight...

Gold futures overnight.

As for the market, well that depends on the PPT, I don't believe they are there to manipulate the market higher, I think they are there to maintain an orderly sell-off, it seems clear the F_E_D doesn't want any more of a bubble in the Stock market.

This is ES which was among the futures I said "Didn't look good" last night, it went from making a new high yesterday for the week to a new low today for the week...

There is a positive divergence building in pre-market, I'm guessing its the PPT, but that's just more opportunities for us, I'd try to stay fairly nimble with options, taking gains on momentum -watch momentum indicators for signs of reversals, the core shorts I'd try to build in to any bounce or strength.

NQ is building a similar divergence.

My guess would be if we got an early bounce, by the afternoon that would likely be close to reversing. We'll let the market tell us as usual though. I did think it was probable for the IWM/SPY and others to build a slightly bigger positive divergence so this may allow that unless we just go over the water fall.

The USD/JPY...

This fell well over 200 pips overnight on Japan...

You can see it too has a positive divergence this morning.

That means the Yen gained a lot overnight.

Remember, GLD was a trading position.

I have an 8:15 Dr.'s appointment, I should be back in time for the open.

Let the fun begin. This is just the kind of market you don't chase, you were either in on time or not, those poor souls who are still buying the dip!