Leading Indicators

I hope you got a chance to see the last post and specifically the SPY Arbitrage and ES/CONTEXT Model as they or at least the SPY Arbitrage was EXACTLY as predicted earlier this morning without having had the benefit of looking at it, just based on what we already know and expect.

Leading Indicators, which are 1 of 3 very important indications for calling a pivot/top area (for the move called in the April 2nd forecast) where we want to open larger positions for the next leg before it actually starts and makers its turn, as this has been demonstrated numerous times to be the best entry with the lowest risk and highest timing probabilities, posted short term positive divergences yesterday in line with our very short term forecast for today which was the market bounce off yesterday's support as defined by numerous indicators, but visibly most easily observed, by the bullish Hammer candlestick reversals yesterday (which were weak in their own right overall, but enough for a green close today).

If you saw the charts posted yesterday for Leading Indicators or as they have been posted through this entire process, then today's move would be no surprise as they too were forecasting a very near term pop to the upside today, HOWEVER, they have deteriorated substantially since the April 2nd forecast followed up and started the very next trading day (A Monday after the 3-day Good Friday weekend holiday).

As shown last night, the important longer term view of these indicators since the market started to fulfill our April 2nd forecast the very next trading day which was April 7th, have deteriorated significantly.

Intraday today Leading Indicators were supportive as they were forecasting yesterday, but there has been deterioration in to today and more importantly on the larger view April 2nd trend basis/

Of particular note today is the SPY Arbitrage which tells us the market strength simply is not there without resorting to tricks to manipulate short term trade in the market.

Yields were trying to be supportive intraday, but overall lost more ground for our larger L.I. trend.

Pro sentiment was helpful around the 12:30 ramp as seen in SPX, but has deteriorated both longer term and intraday today significantly.

Commodities were also helpful to supporting the market intraday today as predicted yesterday, but again larger view in a bad place for the market.

Perhaps most notable is High Yield Credit which deteriorated on the day and within the longer term indication that means the most.

I'll update these in the Daily Wrap.

Market Update

Yesterday I drew quite a few example charts in this broad market update, IMPORTANT Market Update which contained the overall market's pinching volatility and shrinking range (I drew in numbers relative in size to the moves the represented),  as well as two examples of the reversal process that from day to day see the market act directionally, but when viewed as a process, usually only visible after it is complete, you can see the "Rounding" top which is one of two examples I drew yesterday or the otherwise tighter range or a reversal process. I also included the Market averages' example of the weaker than expected price trend of the last week and a half, from the actual post below...

"Here's the gain of approximately 2% in the SPX since the April 2nd forecast for a triangle-based volatility squeeze sending the market up in a highly directional move that is common to volatility squeezes whether price pattern based like the apex (point) of the converging trendlines of a triangle or whether from a Bollinger Band squeeze of volatility. As I said on April 2nd in the forecast, "It's the promise of a highly directional and future volatile move".

I'll admit that from both a forecast point of view and the opportunity to use higher prices to enter new or add to existing positions, the move has been very tame and not the upside breakout I anticipated. I'm still not sure or have a strong feeling whether this is just not completed yet, although all of the indications are suggesting we are in the end-phase or whether there has been such a change in the market's ability to rally based on the lack of institutional support as strong distribution has sent institutional money out of stocks broadly speaking, whether evidenced by SEC filings, 3C charts or breadth indications which don't lie and cannot be misinterpreted, they are like math, hard numbers, not opinion. Every move we have seen this year has failed far earlier and begun to see distribution far earlier than previous moves as recently as the last quarter of 2014."

This is the chart of the overall shrinking ranges through 2015, making short term trades very difficult, also from the same post linked above and the comments about this chart posted above.

Approx. size of each move's range and shrinking swing volatility from the same post linked, IMPORTANT Market Update

And one of several scenarios re: the reversal process, again see the rest in the post linked above.

Drawn in example of 1 of 3 scenarios in a reversal process, the point being they can be dangerous to try to trade short term.

Also as clearly posted in yesterday's updates and very clearly in the DAILY WRAP from last night, the 1 min charts of the averages either in line or positive such as these...

SPY 1 min in line as it was yesterday.

QQQ 1 min in line with a small intraday negative divegrence, but the point is in line or stronger as of yesterday pointing to near term upside today just like the daily closing candlesticks for the averages as well as short term leading indicator indications.

And IWM 1 min intraday.

Again, the point was, for a reversal process, the chart's strength on a 1 min chart gave a high probability upside move after yesterday's largely negative activity, which would be needed to create the choppy range associated with a reversal process.

However, additionally, there should be broad weakness in any thing other than VERY short term intraday charts such as posted yesterday in 1 min charts. Even as of yesterday, just about anything 2 minutes or longer was negative, in line with the short term bounce higher today, while also indicating broad weakness in the area, also indicative of a reversal process/top/pivot point.

Here are the 2 min charts of the same averages as posted yesterday.

SPY at 2 min leading negative

QQQ 2 min leading negative

IWM 2 min leading negative.

You really can't get any closer than that, 1 min very short term intraday strength for the next day (today) followed by broad weakness starting at the very next timeframe. Note there was NO positive migration in the 2 min n charts AT ALL today.


As for the intraday NYSE TICK (market breadth intraday), it trended as would be expected for a bounce higher today off yesterday's Hammer (bullish) reversal candles, even though they are weak in size and volume....

The TICK just after I posted the warning in Quick Intraday Market Update around 2 pm.

 The trend / Channel is perfect for the market action today, however like yesterday's short term "flameout" at morning lows , this afternoon saw something similar, but opposite which would best be described as a Channel Buster in TICK at the yellow area, which as you know with larger channel busters on 60 min or daily charts, nearly always break to the downside of the channel after breaking above, very similar in concept to a Crazy Ivan Shakeout.

And since there has been no improvement.

You may recall earlier today based on both the VIX action and the HYG support, I said I THOUGHT THAT I'D FIND THE SHORT TERM MANIPULATION OF THE SPY ARBITRAGE ACTIVE TODAY IF I HAD THE TIME TO CHECK ...

Well I checked...

 Approximately half of the SPY's move today is directly due to the manipulation of VIX/HYG and to a lesser degree TLT...the SPY Arbitrage (+$.60).

However, even though short term manipulation of the most common market levers has lifted the market today as anticipated yesterday because as I suspected yesterday, the market simply doesn't have the strength relying on institutional support alone... The Es/SPX E-mini CONTEXT Model based on numerous risk assets smart money trades vs the SPX, there's a deficit of nearly 50 ES/SPX future points on the day alone as you can see by the CONTEXT model below.


CONTEXT for ES.

Thus, the analysis of even the simplest indications of the averages 1 min charts vs anything longer than 1 min, is being confirmed by the models above as well as the 3 main indications I have been following, the 15 min. charts of the averages, the 7-15 min charts of Index futures and Leading Indicators which I'll up[date soon as well.

I'd say we are very much within the reversal process.

Trade Idea: Adding USO Short/Puts

As posted per the USO / GLD Follow Up update today, I will be adding USO puts to the tracking portfolio, except not the same as yesterday's TRADE IDEA: USO SHORT (PUTS) May 15 $19 strike (PUTS), these will still be May 15th PUTS, but in the money at $20 strike, but treated as 1 position for risk management purposes.

USO 1 min intraday

USO / GLD Follow Up

As a follow up to yesterday's TRADE IDEA: USO SHORT (PUTS) USO post, for the moment, I'm not changing anything , although if I feel the charts are supporting a change of view, I'll certainly post it.

Just as we closed GLD Puts temporarily yesterday, Closing down the GLD May $115 Putt Temporarily, in expecting a near term/short term bounce/noise which would allow us to keep the gains and re-enter the position, I believe the USO charts still support the position yesterday, although I do believe Oil is in the midst of forming a longer term trend/primary reversal to the upside.

GLD is up today nearly +.75%, which would have cut in to the GLD puts opened Friday and their 30% gain (on May monthlies in the money $115).

 The longer term GLD swing signals on a 15 min chart went from positive to negative which was the reason for the GLD puts (at red square) opened Friday.

However the near term 2 min chart, among others showed us a very short term/near term bounce that would otherwise be considered noise if the position weren't so leveraged, thus it seemed best to close it for the moment and then re-open it after the implied upside move from yesterday's positive divegrence on short term intraday charts, played out.

As you can see, today we have a +.75% move that is confirmed on a 2 min chart, which would have likely put the GLD put position at a loss or at least a significant loss of the +30% gains for little over a day of market exposure.

Likewise, the USO put position yesterday was based on the charts, although I do believe USO / oil generally has built a primary trend base that will support a broad move higher in a likely intermediate or primary Dow trend classification, a significant reversal of price to the upside far beyond the bouncing we have seen in USO that is still within the base area.

USO base area not only looking good for a longer term trend position (long), but with solid longer term 3C signals as well.

Short term, I expect a pullback in crude, which is many ways is very similar to GLD's multiple timeframe analysis as well including a likely longer term base in place for a trend change to the upside, although not as clear and clean looking as crude's.

As for yesterday's trade idea, I'm not ready to walk away from it yet, which is why I prefer more time than I think I'll need on the Put expiration (May monthlies).

Last night the API crude inventories came in below consensus, but the important one is the D.O.E's Wednesday 10:30 inventories which were out this morning with a beat, although now at 14 consecutive weeks of builds and 18 weeks of builds at Cushing, the longest in Crude's history, the actual build of 1.3 mn barrels was below consensus (just as API's was last night) of 3.5 mn barrel build.

However, also as part of the A.M. Update, the EIA's monthly report (not the same as the weekly inventories) sees Saudi Arabia increasing production/supply over the following month. The inventories explain some of the knee jerk reaction in prices, but they have little to do with the actual trade idea.

As for USO,

 This is USO's intraday 1 min chart, a short term chart which is appropriate as Option trade=s for me are usually shorter term in nature, I like to try to capture the initial momentum and then get our before the first serious consolidation as you can always re-enter without the drawdown on options which is significant due to the leverage.

The 1 min chart was leading negative yesterday as the initial USO minimum target area of the gap was filled.

Today the chart is leading negative as well suggesting distribution in to the knee jerk reaction to the upside on the lower than expected API and EIA crude inventory builds. Still Cushing is 90% full, we still have a record 14 weeks of builds and we still have the EIA's report that the Saudis will increase production over the next month.

 Intraday the 5 min chart is at a relative negative divegrence.

And most significant as USO has seen a number of week's in which the price and 3C trend were in line (green arrow areas), the opportunities are at the pivots at the divergences of which there have only been 3 significant ones on this chart for the year, the strongest is right now, 60 min leading negative divegrence as I suspect more work is to be done on the base area, perhaps even a head fake stop run below the March 18th, $15.61 lows, which on their own were a head fake move, breaking support at the $16.30 level before ramping approx. +25% higher since the stop-run/head fake of March 18th.

I probably don't have to say it, but with our market expectations of finishing up the last week+'s move to the upside in a reversal process, a dip lower in oil/Energy overall would be an interesting timing event as Energy is a large sector consisting of much more than just Energy/oil prices, but everything from exploring, drilling, transportation, storage, etc. are all part of the Energy sector which has given the market some upside assistance, a drop in crude and the overall energy sector around this area would be significant to our "What comes next" downside move as the reversal process finishes up in the broad market.

Crude Futures (Brent).

 /CL 10 min, ner term leading negative divergence.

/CL 7 min  leading negative divegrence.

/CL 5 min relative negative divegrence after the upside move since last night's API data, finally going in to a negative (relative) divergence.

I'd prefer to see this 5 min chart leading negative before adding to a USO put/short position, but I think the longer term 7 and 10 min charts are the higher probability unless they fail which they haven't thus far.

AAPL Finally Looks To be Making a Move

AAPL is on the watchlist for a trade set-up, while I'd prefer to short AAPL in to strength, it has lagged over the last week and a half.

It looks like that lagging is about to end and it will finally make a move that can be used to set up a decent trade.

This is not my favorite long trade, but I suppose if you have the risk tolerance for it, there's some upside to be had.

 As was originally posted on April 2nd about triangle's like AAPL's on the daily chart, "They are the promise of a highly directional move", but AAPL since has been hardly anything close to "highly" directional, while the rest of the market has made the anticipated move over the last week and a half, it has been somewhat half-heartedly, which I've speculated may simply be because there's not enough institutional support left. You may remember the chart showing each move progressively getting weaker and pinching in to a tighter and tighter range that has caused short term traders a lot of trouble.

In AAPL's case any way, this 5 min chart with a leading positive divgerence looks like AAPL is finally going to deliver. There has simply been nothing to short in to with AAPL over the past week and a half, perhaps now.

Quick Intraday Market Update

The upside expectations for today posted yesterday, which should become a part of the reversal process, although it's rarely evident until it has already occurred, looks like intraday has reached its peak and we should be seeing some intraday downside, although I'd imagine a green close still.

USO also looks like it has hit an intraday high and I'm seriously considering a small add-to Put position in addition to yesterday's as long as it doesn't violate risk management position size rules.

Sticking With USO Put For Now

I'll be sticking with yesterday's TRADE IDEA: USO SHORT (PUTS) idea for now, I have an update that's nearly ready to post, I just have to add some oil (Brent) futures charts. Also GLD will be in the update as we closed the GLD put temporarily yesterday anticipating an upside move which we have today.

SPY Update-DAX flash crash-Futures

DAX futures saw some interesting downside volatility just a bit ago, this is a bit annoying as the A.M. Update dealt with Germany specifically, German Bunds and the overall contradiction or as I explained it earlier in reference to the A.M. Update, the land of 1+1=3 and how that won't fly for long.

I can't sum up the A.M. Update, but suffice it to say, as of when I started writing it, the ECB who left rates unchanged today is only a few weeks in to their QE program as German Bunds are a mere 14 bps away from a negative yield while the periphery sees yields jump, like Greece who saw the  largest pop in yields this morning in over 2 years as the default prospects loom large. This has many aspects, not the least of which is what this means to the ECB's QE program with German Bunds 14 basis points away from a negative yield as the PIIGGS (generally speaking) are seeing yields sore due to sovereign risk.

In any case, I'll get to that, I just wish I had it out before this post, before the DAX's near flash crash this morning and what's happening in the overall market and the 3 main areas I've been monitoring for signals, the last holdout of one of the main areas were the signals on 15 min charts which have all gone from positive on April 2nd to negative and this was the specific timeframe or line in the sand that I'm watching.

As mentioned last night/yesterday, the 1 min charts of the averages looked like they'd see upside today as well as the closing hammers in the major averages yesterday (short term support) in the area we'd expect to see a reversal process anyway.

 1 min charts like IWM are in line with last night's assessment of the averages with nothing, no support after 1 min charts such as IWM 2 min below... the implication being the reversal process needs to essentially turn laterally, although I didn't want to rule out some minor upside gains such as the IWM so far today, but the overall weakness just behind those very short term 1 min charts as Leading Indicators show the same thing, posted clearly in last night's Wrap.

 IWM 2 min not even close to confirmation and leading negative and it just keeps going like that or worse in to longer timeframes.

As mentioned, this is across all of the averages...

 SPY 2 min for example.

However for my larger pin-point the pivot purposes, the SPY 15 min chart HAS to turn negative.

As such, this morning's signals and early this afternoon thus far...

Show SPY 15 min in line as it should have been since the April 2nd triangle /breakout forecast, however today the chart is for the first time since the April 2nd forecast in position to start a leading negative divergence as it is not confirming.

If you caught the gist of last night's Daily Wrap, it was that leading indicators very short term (as in a day or less) were in line with the closing Hammers in the averages and the 1 min charts suggesting some strength today, while the larger price pattern should form a range/reversal process over the next day or so with op-ex this Friday, BUT THE LARGER SIGNALS THAT MEANT THE MOST TO PINPOINTING THE PIVOT/REVERSAL HAVE ALL DETERIORATED AS WE WERE EXPECTING.

Now it seems the long awaited SPY 15 min chart may be about to join them as it sits in a negative divergence at the moment. I'll be more comfortable calling it when it is leading negative, which may not be far away.

MCP "Patience Pays?"

I've probably sickened you to death with the Jesse Livermore quotes, if you don't know who Jesse Livermore is, I highly recommend going out and getting the book or e-book, there are a couple, "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator", "Jesse Livermore: World's Greatest Stock Trader" and several more. The man who traded the early 20th century, a self-made multi-millionaire who started as a runner in a stock bucket shop and turned in to one of the greatest traders we have ever seen.

In any case, I may have bored you to death with the same quotes and messages over and over again, but the point is simple, truth is true no matter where it's found and in today's world, today's market it's easy to get "Lost in the lines". I don't regret posting the quotes until the point in which you want to send me hate mail, at some point in your trading career, they'll take on a new meaning for you, just like reading a book and getting one message from it, but after some life experience over a few years and reading the same book and you get a whole new message-especially true of religious/spiritual texts.

To paraphrase the main theme of many of the quotes, "I never made millions in the market because I was smarter than anyone else, there were a lot of traders who were right on the market as I was. It was always the sitting that made me the big bucks. It's a very rare thing for a trader to be right and have the ability to sit tight".

In other words, although that's probably a horrible paraphrase of multiple quotes, a lot of people saw the same thing he did, he just had the courage of his conviction as opposed to the others who were run out of their trades by emotions and all kinds of other market tricks.

I mention this specifically because no matter how hard Seeking Alpha tried to drive MCP out of business as their contributors were often short MCP on the hit pieces they'd write, there has always been a very strong underlying trend in MCP telling us that someone has known something about MCP that should at some point send the stock much higher if they were willing to stick with it over its sharp drawdown and continue accumulating it at lower and lower prices. 

I know some of you have held tight to MCP and today I say congratulations as MCP is up well over +50%. 

 MCP up about + 55% today alone with no leverage.

There's a "W" bottom as you can see, a price pattern/concept that we see on daily charts, weekly charts or 1 min charts. Note the volume near the "W" base lows as well and today's break-away gap volume, BEAUTIFUL-AGAIN WELL DESERVED CONGRATULATIONS are in order for those who stuck with MCP.

THE NEWS...
Molycorp Chosen to Supply Rare Earths for Use in High-Efficiency Siemens Wind Turbine Generators

This is a 10-year deal, the probability of additional follow-oon deals is high, so the company that SEEKING ALPHA has been trying to drive pout of business as their short MCP contributors have been at it for well over a year, has just broken their collective jaws this morning.

There's not wit or sage market advice that just simply says "Stay in a stock and you'll be rewarded", that's not what Jesse Livermore was saying, it was the ability to BOTH be RIGHT and SIT TIGHT, were rare traits for traders.

Why would we assume we were right about MCP long term? Like everything else in the market unless you are breaking the law, it's probabilities which differs greatly from gambling.

These have been the probabilities that have kept faith in MCP alive for all tis time.

As I often say, 3C can show us the underlying activity in the stock, but the reasons why won't be known until the chance to make money has already passed, this morning we find out what this was likely about, or perhaps there's even more to come.

This is a weekly leading positive divergence with a specific leading positive divergence at the "W" bottom lows.

This is FAR from the only long term chart that has been suggesting someone knew something about MCP and what they had cooking on the fire.

Again, I have been pushing the importance of volume analysis as it is a lost art, but one that will serve you well in so many ways. Just look at this 3-day chart of MCP and the "W" base lows and volume and note the increasing volume on the move to the upside to the far right, EXACTLY as is should be.

What I find truly exciting for MCP longs is that this "W" base is just that, a stage 1 base that hasn't even broken out yet or moved to stage 2 mark-up!!!

As for those who are in or would like to get in, I of course would not chase MCP here if you weren't already in, but lets lay down an update and base of analysis that we can move forward from, whether it's trade management or new or add-to positions.

Again, the long term charts like this long term 4 hour 3C MCP chart shows a clear positive divegrence at its base as well as the longer term charts above showing a much larger overall divergence, this tells me something about the suspected upside target we'll get to.

 This is the "W" base on a 4 hour chart, the divergence here should be obvious,

However it has been a long term divergence, I can't get any more history out of this 60 min chart, but you can see where it started leading.

Based on the 3C concept of divergence reversals almost always surpass the area where the divergence was first seen (although there are several charts we could use for that purpose), using this 60 min chart would suggest a move through the $8.00 level which would make MCP an attractive long position even if you weren't already in it.

As for the price-pattern implied target of the base, the upside would be at least $2.00, but I suspect that this would be very conservative over the long-haul. 

 The 10 min chart is not fast enough to catch up with this morning's now 67% move to the upside, but shortly it will and these intermediate charts will be helpful in discovering pullback areas and confirming them as pullback entries or for those who want to trade around swings.

Note the yellow arrow which I use to point out head fake moves ( a stop run here).

 The 5 min chart is showing PERFECT upside confirmation so far which is a strong signal for the move.

On a more detailed 2 min chart, it looks like accumulation by middlemen/Specialists as it's probable they were building inventory ahead of the known deal announcement. The chart is also in line and confirming this morning's price move.

The 1 min chart shows the same kind of activity, usually market makers/specialists and also good overall upside confirmation.

If using the X-OVer Screen for management, you'd need to wait for the 3rd signal to go long, the custom indicator in the middle window above its 22-bar moving average (blue) on a 3-day chart. The first pullback should be to the yellow 10-bar (3-day) moving average or thereabouts. Subsequent pullbacks likely AFTER a breakout from the "W" base will likely come down to the 3-day blue 22-bar moving average.

The chart shows the last sell signal and a false whipsaw in the price moving average in orange which is why we use this system, to root out false whipsaw price moving average noise and keep to the trend,

Speaking of which...

For now, I'd use the 3-day Trend Channel for stop management. It stopped out the downtrend at the yellow area, but it's yet to move to a long trend as the channel needs to turn up, which it should do with little trouble, we can adjust the width of the stop after that according to preference, but for the longer term trend, for now I;'d stick with the 3-day Trend Channel.

Again, congratulations to MCP longs for today, you've earned it.

Market Update

I've been working on the A.M. Update, which takes quite a while to put together as does the Daily Wrap, to get some idea, just look at the time it is posted, I start as soon as the market closes and maybe have 30 minutes of time in which I take the dogs out, get something to drink etc. so if I post at 8:30 p.m., it's about 4 hours in to that post.

While I really would like to get the A.M. Update out as it is a remarkable "Study in Contrasts", it's like a world in which 1+1=3 and the accounting in that world just can't hang on for long, but it's proving to be too time consuming so I'll post it later today.

The market's overnight action and cash market opening action thus far is EXACTLY what we were looking for in the reversal process with a lot of support from near term Leading Indicators, 3C charts, etc.

This is what the reversal process looks like, although it won't be a strong picture until it's finished, then you'll see days like today fit in perfectly.

The daily SPY chart with yesterday's bullish Hammer / support area.  Remember, a reversal candle carries no target with it, but you can generally assume the larger the hammer, the more the volume, the stronger the reversal. As mentioned yesterday, this is not a strong reversal candle with a short lower wick, not the best real body and low volume, but it's perfect for where the market needs to be to complete the reversal process (drawn in yellow).

However, the market needed a lot of support to pull this off, take a look at HYG today as a ramping lever along with VXX, if I had to guess and checked Capital Context, I'd guess their SPY Arbitrage signal was active (a ramping / manipulation lever to lift the market), which means one thing, the market's strength itself is not there, not even for a simple reversal process,  but this is far from news to us over the last week and a half or so.

As I said last night, the 1 min charts were in line or slightly positive supporting upside at least early today and the reversal process...

 SPY 1 min intraday with a leading positive divegrence at yesterday's a.m. lows and the "Flameout" on the downside and nearly in line this morning, NEARLY.

It was the charts just after 1 min as I was posting yesterday that are bothersome for the market, but right in line with a weakened market in the end stages of the last week's move, the reversal process.

As early as the next chart, SPY 2 min I'm sure you can see the difference in tone and it just keeps going from there.

SPY 5 min leading negative through the entire forecasted move from April 2nd.

IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE SPY 15 MIN IS GOING TO PUT IN THE DEFINITIVE NEGATIVE DIVEGRENCE THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE FEW SIGNALS I'VE BEEN PATIENTLY WAITING ON.

Index futures intraday are similar to the SPY/averages' charts, they don't look great. Here's 1 min ES as an example...

ES/SPX e-mini Futures 1 min. Enough of a positive divegrence to ramp ES futures higher starting about 2 hours before the European open to about an hour after (the positive divergence) and then the ES move higher as expected for the cash open, but since then, not pretty just like the SPY charts after 1 min.

As far as I can tell, this is EXACTLY in line with what we have seen in all indications and right on track, although I'd much rather see the market moving strongly in the direction of our positions or toward better levels for new positions, I can't say I'm displeased with the reality of the market and the reversal process and our analysis of it. Everything remains predictably on track which is where I want it.

I'll have more specific asset updates as they ripen, likely through the day.

The A.M. Update which is more than just covering the news events as you can get that anywhere, is especially interesting this morning so although it may seem irrelevant being released later in the day, please try to get to reading it if you can, it's important information, something approaching a new indicator if it were possible.