Not a Conspiracy Theory

Not when you have irrefutable proof and yet again, today, another POMO day sees the Prmary Dealer levitate the market with freshly picked green cotton at 11 a.m. at the end of the POMO.

 Positive divergence on 5 min chart of the SPY-note the time, The market really didn't look back after that.

Under the weather

Today I was very ill with some sort of flu so I apologize that there were no posts. If  could have put anything up with a situation update I would have. My wife called 14 times and I couldn't even answer the phone right next to me. In any case, the fever seems to have broken and I'll be back on the case first thing in the a.m.

I tried to get to everyone's emails today, if you have any questions, please feel free to email me as I try to get caught up on today's action.

Again, my sincere apologies.

Check out Trade Guild Tonight

I posted a video of EEE, one of our best performing Cats and Dogs picks. What I hope you will take away from this is the ability of 3C (by the way, this is a newer version of 3C-so if you're using the indicator email me for the code-it's similar to the orange 3C) to find some of the best exits allowing you to hopefully maximize your gains. If you're not using the indicator, please email me and keep in touch when it gets to trade management. After seeing this video, it should be clear why.

On another note, I'm using some new tools on a Beta release of TC2000 which is awesome. I sill have to set up my templates, but there's a few tools that I think will help gauge the amount of accumulated volume and distributed volume which should also help in finding the best entries and exits, plus a whole slew of new scanning tools. So if you see some different indicators in the days ahead, it's the beta version coming out soon. I have links to TeleChart and StockFinder at the very top of the site, check them out.

Market Update

Well there are stocks everywhere getting slammed today. I'd attribute a large part of it to the Portugese incident, but I'll have to do some dgging later to confirm that.

One thing is for certain, yesterday I told you the Dow was tipping it's hand and showing some negative divergences/distribution. Ironically today it's held up the best.

Here are the current charts and if you are a bull, you're not going to like them.

 The DIA's negative divergence is now spread to the 30 min chart which means the situation is more serious-but you can see that in the market's action. The last 2 days have confirmed this divergence.

 The Q's were coming out of an ascending wedge, I talked about it and knew that we'd see the typical volatility of a very familiar pattern as the black boxes love to make 100 years of technical analysis the weapon of choice they use against you. The 30 min picked up on the divergence late yesterday and is leading today.

The SPY 15 minute, which is a nice timeframe for reversals of the "Swing" magnitude, traced out this nasty little divergence which was relative until today when it went into a leading divergence.

There are some short term positives, I'm not sure what to make of them, but the market has been very "Gappy" lately so a gap in the a.m. would make sense (to the upside). We also haven't seen downside in many of the averages like today in quite awhile.  Just looking at the 1-5 minute positives, I see there's a slight bid in after hours, so it could be about that too where the market makers/specialists pick up some shares toward the close and sell them to permabulls who are stuck on the "Buy the dip" mentality no matter what the charts say.

For now, lets take it for what it is, a bad day. I'm going to check the market breadth and the P/V relationships, today could have created a one day oversold like the one day overbought I mentioned last night. As they say, one day does not make a trend. I do believe though we are setting up for some nasty downside. The bases I've seen in some of the inverse ETFs are just too big for them not to pop. If/when they do pop, it's going to be ugly with bases of that size.

I'll be reporting back, I have a lot of charts to look at.

FXI another bear flag breakdown

Here's the familiar bear flag. Note the trend lines are drawn a bit narrow, the reason why is the two days sticking out were both false breakout/breakdowns, the reason I know this is because of the quick and immediate move in the opposite direction.

On the 30 min 3C chart you can see both with divergences representing the false moves so that gives us some further confirmation

The 15 minute shows the negative bias as well as the false breakout as well. Note the position of 3C at the recent high, this gives me some confidence we are not seeing a false breakout as the distribution pattern is larger-actually throughout the bear flag, which is the very reason bear flags exist.

The 1 minute chart is in confirmation of today's move out of the flag.

This is a fairly new breakdown so it's in decent position.

Stops that can be used include $44.65 and $44.85

DELL a Short Trade

 Dell daily, a bear flag consolidation breaking down. I've had an alert set for this breakdown, it just sent a trigger.

 3C 60 minutes in nice confirmation until several days ago, a beautiful negative divergence at the top of the range.


 30 min chart confirms the same

10 min chart confirms again, this is what I like to see, multiple confirmations.

Dell may pullback a bit and offer a better entry, but you may risk it not coming back at all. You could try a phased approach adding on any strength, wait for a pullback or just go for it now, but your stop needs to take a pullback into consideration.

I'd think an initial stop at $14.20 would work. The trend channel is at $14.27 but it'll probably hit $14.20 by the close. This is another bellwether stock taking it on the chin-not good news for the market.

And they BEAT!

Here's yesterday's earnings pick-a short sale in AMR which reported earnings this morning.

Can someone email me and let me know they took this trade? Down -5.8% in a large cap.

In the Famous Words of Paul Harvey, "And the rest of the story"

Today is a POMO day, just about like every other trading day save 1 or two every couple of weeks as the Fed is busy monetizing as fast as they can before Ron Paul hauls them before the Financial Services Domestic Subcommittee in the House.

And what happens again today? The Fed monetized newly issued debt from the Treasury to the Primary Dealers. In the process the PD's are making millions of dollars. It's a simple and diabolical scheme. the Treasury issues debt, the Primary Dealers soak it up knowing full well the Federal Reserve will buy it from them because lets face it, China voiced it's displeasure with US monetary policy to Hilary Clinton and stopped buying-in steps the PDs and the Fed. Now the downright dirty part which is costing tax payers billions of dollars for literally nothing.

Today the Fed bought treasuries from the Primary Dealers that were just issued January 11th. The PD's are flipping them so fast, they literally have no risk. Each POMO puts millions of dollars in their pockets through the bid/ask spread, the Fed takes on the debt which is effectively monetized and these PD's levitate the market with their 100% risk free capital.

AAPL with it's weight on the NASDAQ 100 Index which is estimated to be around 20% of the index, or about the same as 50 other NASDAQ stocks combined, is the easiest way to lift the market. So it's always fun to watch AAPL around 11 a.m. on a POMO day.

Again, note the time-

The first positive divergence in believable as AAPL has to consolidate after taking the lumps it took this a.m. and since the 5% gain in A.H. yesterday. The second divergence is a leading divergence (stronger) and it's at what time? 11 a.m. right when POMO operations are officially concluded.

The SPY again....

Same time, same divergence. If the DIA/Dow wasn't so ugly we'd probably be going through the roof. But here's te catch, they don't need to go through the roof. Investing several hundred million dollars, they can make a nice profit on a minimal gain, or I suspect if the red phone rings, the nice profit can turn into obscene profits on top of obscene profits.

Really, this is infuriating. If the Fed is going to monetize the debt....



Despite a blatant lie under oath to Congress....

Then just let them buy it straight from the treasury and cut out these PD's that make billions for taking no risk, manipulating the market and costing tax payers billions.

They did it again

Here's the SPY-story to follow....

Two positive divergences and a leading positive divergence, take note of the time 3C went leading positive, the same time POMO ended.

I want to get this out so you know where the market is going near term, story is coming next.

Precious Metals and USO

I haven't had too many emails about SLV and less about GLD which I take as indicative that members aren't buying the viral, "Lets Squeeze JPM's Silver Short" campaign or the media's "Gold's run is like diamonds, forever".

As I've said in the past, I'm not opposed to either trade as a long, they just need to show they deserve the money invested and they haven't done that.

Take a look.

 Both GLD and SLV remain under resistance of large formations that in my opinion are too large to be consolidations, that leaves probabilities rising that they may be tops.

 Here's GLD's recent 1 min 3C chart. There was a small patch of accumulation, just about big enough for a little bounce and we saw that the next day. This morning's gap up was met with a negative divergence, not confirmation and while GLD is still up on the day, it hasn't run higher then the gap. It still could run a bit, we'll have to watch the charts unfold, but I don't see enough accumulation to make a serious play at taking out resistance thus far.

SLV-again trading under that resistance with a gap up this a.m.

 This being a 5 min. chart  it's more compressed, but the patch of accumulation (white arrow) is the same place as GLD's, again not large enough to produce much more then a bounce. And look at this a.m.'s gap up and  just how negative that divergence was-no confirmation, no leading divergences, it just looks like  gap that took some silver enthusiasts' money.

USO I've been throwing in with the PM updates so here it is. Talk about failed gaps this morning, 3C is making a new low on USO. Maybe if this continues we'll see USO make a move out of the range and I'm not thinking to the upside.