Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Precious Metals and USO

I haven't had too many emails about SLV and less about GLD which I take as indicative that members aren't buying the viral, "Lets Squeeze JPM's Silver Short" campaign or the media's "Gold's run is like diamonds, forever".

As I've said in the past, I'm not opposed to either trade as a long, they just need to show they deserve the money invested and they haven't done that.

Take a look.

 Both GLD and SLV remain under resistance of large formations that in my opinion are too large to be consolidations, that leaves probabilities rising that they may be tops.

 Here's GLD's recent 1 min 3C chart. There was a small patch of accumulation, just about big enough for a little bounce and we saw that the next day. This morning's gap up was met with a negative divergence, not confirmation and while GLD is still up on the day, it hasn't run higher then the gap. It still could run a bit, we'll have to watch the charts unfold, but I don't see enough accumulation to make a serious play at taking out resistance thus far.

SLV-again trading under that resistance with a gap up this a.m.

 This being a 5 min. chart  it's more compressed, but the patch of accumulation (white arrow) is the same place as GLD's, again not large enough to produce much more then a bounce. And look at this a.m.'s gap up and  just how negative that divergence was-no confirmation, no leading divergences, it just looks like  gap that took some silver enthusiasts' money.

USO I've been throwing in with the PM updates so here it is. Talk about failed gaps this morning, 3C is making a new low on USO. Maybe if this continues we'll see USO make a move out of the range and I'm not thinking to the upside.

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