Not Looking Good for the Market

I'm watching so many things at once I have to keep telling myself, "Slow down" as my heart is about beating out of my chest.

In my next post that I'm trying not to rush, I'll show you everything I'm seeing

XLF-Financials also seeing Distribution-Pretty much every asset class I've checked

AAPL and XLK Charts

Things happen so fast when the herd stampedes, again AAPL is the best recent example coming off all time highs at $700+, when this happens, it's pretty much too late to get in as they just start selling any strength and then they just start selling regardless of strength and that's how AAPL lost 45% in 7 months.

AAPL right now, I don't want to enter puts yet because to me it's not ideal, it may not be ideal if the stampede comes.

 I don't have time for a lot of comments with everything moving so fast and trying to determine what exactly it is. AAPL 1 min is showing fast, strong distribution and it barely bounced, this is the HYG effect I was looking for earlier in the week to tell us about sentiment.

 The divergence has to migrate, looking that bad that fast, I'd think it will no problem- 2m

3 min zoomed out

3 min intraday

5 min

XLK-Tech Sector

 1 min-EXACTLY like AAPL, being distributed hard here

2 min migration

3 min

3 min trend with a head fake break pout likely as resistance was well defined.

5 min

Big picture 60 min

Going Long TECS (3x short Tech) ETF

Puts are a bit difficult now, but TECS is in great position, a head fake position and a stop just above intraday highs with very little risk.

Waiting on AAPL Put

I'll post charts of AAPL and XLK

Going to Add to AAPL Equity Short-Maybe a Put

AAPL we expected to bounce, it has and is seeing distribution, I'll at least add to the equity short, if there's time I may add an AAPL Put.

XLK is also turning very negative very fast-that's the Tech Sector.

Futures seeing Distribution too

Distribution can be selling of longs or selling short, both actions are selling across the tape.

All Index futures have a negative divergence as well.

Here's ES.

SPY having a hard time

This chart of the Yen/SPY shows the SPY is having a hard time as the Yen opened the door and gave the SPY the all-clear.

All 4 averages have started seeing distribution as well, this is the start of the process, not a signal in itself, but it is the next thing we were looking for in the chain of events and its there across the board.

 The Yen in green gave the SPY plenty of breathing room to make its move, it's not making it so far.

I'm wondering if sellers are just overwhelming the attempted breakout-remember the last WSJ article by F_E_D mouthpiece, Hilsenrath that made clear the F_E_D would be backing out of QE wasn't published until after the close Friday.

We also have the Thursday move toward's Friday's op-ex pin that could be an issue, but I suspect some fear of what Hilsenrath may put out after the close may be in play.

The market will ALWAYS front run the F_ED, that means they will have cleared out and we'll be in decline BEFORE the F_E_D starts withdrawing the punchbowl, the thing is no one knows when that is. With QE1 and 2 the market sold off before the end of the program which was known in advance and the market hates not knowing.

SPY struggling...

SPY intraday divergence on the break out attempt already started.

As for the better performing IWM...

Distribution, it may lose its foot hold.

If so, we may see the same HYG effect, selling before its time, that's real FEAR.

CONTEXT Helps Confirm

Sorry about all of the posts, but the market is moving fast and as I make each new discovery I want to share it with you so you know what we are dealing with.

CONTEXT also helps confirm the general atmosphere is correct for a head fake move-all other risk assets are selling off, a move up in equities though? Based on what? All of this morning's fantastic Economic data (sarcasm).

CONTEXT is already showing a differential of negative 27 points, this is getting close to the last very volatile corrective move we saw when CONTEXT hit 40. As the SPX moves higher, even if Risk Assets don't move down anymore, the differential will become greater, but risk assets are trending in a sell-off so that should send CONTEXT even lower.

As of 30 mins. ago, the SPY Arbitrage wasn't helping the market, although I see the SPY is having some difficulty making the breakout right now.

I also noted this about the DIA-the last attempt to move out of the not as mature triangle was sold hard...

 Note the volume on an earlier attempt in the DIA this morning, but what did 3C say?

 1 min chart negative at the same spot and at "A" note there's no accumulation even intraday to push the DIA higher and as far as I know it's not the levers either  according to SPY Arbitrage, as I suggested before, it's the Yen 

DIA 3 min at the same spot-negative and right now in to the attempted move to breakout, there's a negative 3 min divergence.

As for the Yen...

 Yen in green and SPY in red (you'll see this chart more often for a while), note the Yen moving down as I suggested based on the relative negative divergence I just posted in the Yen and at the same time, so far the SPY is having a hard time capitalizing on the move down in the Yen, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. This tells me there's likely more selling-actual supply / demand dynamics- STRENGTH IS BEING SOLD LIKE WITH HYG A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

Remember the relative negative divergence of the 1 min Yen chart I posted? it did as expected.

So far we are almost perfectly on track as far as our expectations, even though I've only been able to stay ahead of the market by several minutes, we've still predicted the moves correctly.

It's getting interesting, please forgive the posts.

SPY has the Same

And is even moving to confirm right now...

 Here's the pattern and there's going to be no significant reversal without a head fake move

As I am typing, the SPY is starting to break out of the triangle...

Again the 5 min is negative before-hand as well as the more important...

15 min.

The SPY has no intraday positives for the breakout, the only thing it has is a relative negative (weakest divergence) in the Yen...

Yen futures with a relative negative 1 min, which is good because it's a very weak signal, on the Yen chart alone it will probably only look like a normal corrective pullback, on the SPY chart it sets up a head fake entry.

The thing we have to watch for next is negative divergences growing in any head fake or lets say triangle breakouts for now and positives in the Yen, that's the cue to position.