Thursday, May 16, 2013

CONTEXT Helps Confirm

Sorry about all of the posts, but the market is moving fast and as I make each new discovery I want to share it with you so you know what we are dealing with.

CONTEXT also helps confirm the general atmosphere is correct for a head fake move-all other risk assets are selling off, a move up in equities though? Based on what? All of this morning's fantastic Economic data (sarcasm).

CONTEXT is already showing a differential of negative 27 points, this is getting close to the last very volatile corrective move we saw when CONTEXT hit 40. As the SPX moves higher, even if Risk Assets don't move down anymore, the differential will become greater, but risk assets are trending in a sell-off so that should send CONTEXT even lower.

As of 30 mins. ago, the SPY Arbitrage wasn't helping the market, although I see the SPY is having some difficulty making the breakout right now.

I also noted this about the DIA-the last attempt to move out of the not as mature triangle was sold hard...

 Note the volume on an earlier attempt in the DIA this morning, but what did 3C say?

 1 min chart negative at the same spot and at "A" note there's no accumulation even intraday to push the DIA higher and as far as I know it's not the levers either  according to SPY Arbitrage, as I suggested before, it's the Yen 

DIA 3 min at the same spot-negative and right now in to the attempted move to breakout, there's a negative 3 min divergence.

As for the Yen...
 Yen in green and SPY in red (you'll see this chart more often for a while), note the Yen moving down as I suggested based on the relative negative divergence I just posted in the Yen and at the same time, so far the SPY is having a hard time capitalizing on the move down in the Yen, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. This tells me there's likely more selling-actual supply / demand dynamics- STRENGTH IS BEING SOLD LIKE WITH HYG A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

Remember the relative negative divergence of the 1 min Yen chart I posted? it did as expected.

So far we are almost perfectly on track as far as our expectations, even though I've only been able to stay ahead of the market by several minutes, we've still predicted the moves correctly.

It's getting interesting, please forgive the posts.

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