Thursday, March 10, 2011

The World is Officially "Falling Apart"

The stock market says so! First we have Pimco's action of ridding themselves of bonds, remember I said listen to what Bill Gross says and does as he is the informal mouthpiece of the Fed? What Gross said and did told traders, "The punch bowl is being taken away-no more QE3" and the Fed's Fisher said very much the same, even going so far as to say he'd consider voting to end QE 2 early. Understand that the market has not headed north in a parabolic move because of earnings, EPS, outlook, sentiment or anything other then ultra-cheap, nearly free money that has been put into risk assets. If you can borrow at 1% and make 2% leveraged on billions or hundreds of billions of dollars, you just made a killing. Gross and the Fed seems to be saying, "The party is over" and if you pat attention to details, everyone on the other side of the market knew this as well as we've has nearly 7 months of consecutive insider selling at ratios I think are probably historic. This should tell you something else, there's a so called"Boys club" sorry for my female members, but guess what, none of us boys are in the club either. How did these insiders know to be selling all this time?

And why have they been selling for so long? Because if you are a CEO with 10 million shares and you put 10 million shares on the market in a week, you just killed your paycheck and your stock and there's probably internal rules that don't allow for that. However, if you sell 300,000 every week for 7 or 8 months, it doesn't tend to stand out as much and if everyone else is doing it and ll the sheep are making money anyway on the melt-up, some may question it, but ultimately... who cares? That is until the music stops. It was the same way with the housing bubble, everyone from every walk of life was a real estate speculator, at Home depot at 9 p.m. and working until 2 a.m. to flip that house in 30 days before the first mortgage payment came due. Everything was great until it wasn't. I have a couple of friends that now have 2 and 3 mortgages, most of them are at prices that are double what the property is worth now. Bubbles are always the same, no matter how many times they tell you "it's different this time-the Fed HAS to buy". Well, guess what? NO THEY DON'T!

And it's not just America, everyone knows what's happening in MENA, I won't even go there except to say that the consequences of what is happening now will be worse then we can imagine and it WILL NOT be confined to the Middle East and North Africa. Think Asia, maybe Eastern Europe, maybe even Europe and the US as well. It will eventually hit south America and when things get closer to home, watch out. Think EDZ. Emerging Economies Will NOT survive these complete tears in their newly formed social fabric.

Euro Zone contagion is back on the table? Did it ever leave? Check this story, this is the nightmare of nightmare for Euro contagion because there isn't enough money to bailout Spain and they are moving ever closer to that end result. There's nothing, no light at the end of the tunnel suggesting they can avoid this. Germany may very well split from the bailout mechanism and perhaps even the Euro. The consequences of all of this put together are mind boggling. We are living in one of the greatest times of social upheaval the world has seen and when all is said and done, it may rival the collapse of the Roman empire-what was then the known civilized world.

I feel kind of bad to be licking my lips, but if we are going to get lemons, why not make lemon aide?

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