Thursday, March 10, 2011

Why I don't consider this a consolidation

I already mentioned the volatility and volume not being right, but look at today's chart...

While we have a good size drop, it isn't much different then other days we have seen. The dominant Price/volume relationship will probably be price down, volume up which will probably give us a 1-day oversold condition which makes sense with some of the charts that have suggested a bounce. Furthermore, this triangle that everyone has been so keen on, really didn't do much today, we didn't break to a new low below support and the day's price action gives us cause to believe that we will see more of the same, so the triangle wasn't all that important and it certainly wasn't a consolidation-this will be especially true if we have a move up tomorrow. I'm starting to think the Crazy Ivan scenario is the more likely end game, but we will let the market tell us. If it is, we'll have an excellent set up with very low risk and excellent positioning (if all is confirmed) to enter shorts in a bigger, more committed way and the best thing is, the sheep will be on the other side of the trade in massive numbers.

Not only have technicians not adapted, they've become even lazier and they are now missing the entire point of Technical Analysis, "listen to the message of the market"-it's there if you listen and think beyond page 127 of "How to Beat Wall Street" by Dr. I've Never Traded In My Life, M.D.

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