SLV/GLD

It's a little difficult to determine how SLV and GLD will react being that they have benefited from QE1 & 2's ultra cheap money that has bid up all risk assets, so considering my latest theory, do they behave in similar fashion?

Here's what we know as of RIGHT NOW

GLD

I have suspected that the breakout above resistance on GLD was a false breakout, it seems we have confirmation of that today in price, but more importantly in the 3C readings of the past weeks.

The daily chart for example failed to confirm a new high, this was crucial and before that we saw some extreme weakness is 3C off of support.

Here the 30 min chart shows several negative divergences at the breakout, including a leading negative which is important on a longer term 30 min chart.

However, the 1 min chart of GLD looks similar to the overall broader market with a positive divergence forming. Typically we see moves back toward resistance (where the breakdown occurred) as the market uses volatility to create volume to make money as there is a severe lack of market participants left-ironically, this volatility is partly to blame.

SLV

SLV has basically fallen back to the break out level here, it hasn't broken down too much below it so whether we are looking at a big pullback or SLV is coming apart, it's difficult to say. The action over the next week is not likely to answer that question either as SLV is likely to see meaningless volatility.

So far the 1 min chart is in confirmation with the move down unlike GLD and the market, but...

The 5 min chart shows what appears to be a strong positive divergence building, price alone suggests this.

The 15 min chart broke down on the tweezer top toward the EOD on 3/8 pretty badly, but even on the 15 min chart we are seeing hints of a possible positive divergence taking shape, although I would not call this a strong indication, it is a bit too early, but worth noting.

On this hourly Trend Channel Chart, here's the upside or first upside target I'd expect, near resistance and also the trend channel. If we see a move higher then that, we'll really need to watch for accumulation/distribution.

If these two become part of the Crazy Ivan theory, then I'd expect to see even more volatility in the PMs then equities as the traders here are hard core in their beliefs, I'd say they are not willing to look at information objectively, but rather have formed their opinions based on what they believe will happen fundamentally in the world and with the fiat money system. Therefore, their commitments are likely to be a lot stronger (on the retail side) which actually sets up good positions for those looking at the data as it is.