Thursday, July 28, 2011

GLD continues lower, for now....

 Here's the 1 min negative divergence in GLD that set off our warnings a couple of days ago, note the negative divergence on yesterday's gap higher-to be expected as part of the snowball effect. In the white area, you can see the divergence persisted yesterday with GLD making some intraday gains and 3C heading lower. Again this morning on a gap up, 3C was negatively divergent. Remember this is the 1 min time frame and is for short term and intraday moves.

 The hourly chart is what has bothered me and prompted my warnings about a possible more serious pullback.

 However, as you know, our best divergence/reversals come when all timeframes are aligned, especially important is the 15 min chart seen above. There is no negative divergence present at this time, which makes me think GLD may attempt a rally close to the recent highs, that would give the 15 min hart a chance to go negative. The other possibility is that the 15 goes in to a leading divergence as GLD moves lower, but I think the first option is more likely. Reversals are rarely a clean U-turn.

 Here are two potential support areas, the 10/22 sma.

The longer term reversal I would hope would lead us to the long term mean of the 150 day simple moving average, something that only happens once or twice a year, but has been a great place to be a buyer.

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