Monday, September 24, 2012

Market Update

I'm not sure if there's news/catalyst for the recent move, the only thing I see that looks to be similar across the board are 2 pm lows best seen in the IWM, the SPY has caught up, DIA not so much, ES not so much.

We're headed or are at the gap fill which has been a consistent feature of the market for quite some time since HFTs started dominating the market. Now is a good time to check the Risk Asset Layout.

 DIA 1 min "looks" impressive, but it's a rather small positive divergence around the 2 p.m. dip which was the lows of the day for the IWM. The rest of the day in the DIa is in line before that 2 p.m. point so while it looks impressive, it's really not that large compared to what it could have been (all day).


 The 5 min is in line, not nearly as impressive as the QQQ 5 min still

 ES is just in line, I searched for a divergence here and couldn't find anything, this may be temporary, but currently it's a bit negative as price is above the morning highs, 3C is not.

 The IWM 1:30-ish lows do have a positive divergence, the first of the day, the light blue line (very thin) is Friday's close and where a gap fill would be complete.

 IWM 5 min again with the first positive of the day at those lows this afternoon.

 NASDAQ futures still look much better than S&P futures, but it also has a ways more to go to get to a gap fill.

 QQQ 2 min also picked up on the afternoon reaction low, the thin blue line is the gap fill.

 QQQ 5 min still looks better than anything out there.

 SPY 1 min put in a minor positive divergence at the same area and is leading, but as quickly as that materialized, it can come back down just as quick, we'll see what the closing stats look like.

SPY 5 min also improved at the same area and looks impressive, it's the very short duration that is questionable.

I'm going to check the risk asset layout, the FX legacy arbitrage doesn't seem to have anything to do with this except following, it didn't start it.


9:30 open in green.

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