Monday, September 24, 2012

GLD

There's a recurring theme in GLD, it's visible on multiple charts and quite interesting. I have a GLL short GLD position for a near term trade, I'll be keeping that open based on what I see thus far and if it works out I'll keep it open until the charts say otherwise. If this seems counter-intuitive (short gold on dollar debasement), I would just offer one plausible reason for gold to fall in the short term. Assuming smart money wants to accumulate gold (and I have to say that all of the stories of gold tungsten filled bars overseas and now in the US almost seems to be more than just thievery, it almost seems as if it is meant to discourage buying gold, I know I'd think twice and have experts look at any physical purchases I make as experts are being fooled), they'd want to do it at the best prices they could. That's one simple reason why gold could fall in the near term.

 GLD 1 min chart shows part of the theme, the 21st's highs were distributed on what is otherwise a head fake move. The 1 min chart today is very "blah", no real movement there.

 On the 3 min chart the entire cycle that keeps repeating on various charts is visible, after the F_O_M_C QE3 highs, there's a negative divergence sending GLD lower, at the gap down lows of the 20th there's accumulation short term and at the gap up highs (head fake move as well?) were distributed, the 3 min chart today is also very "blah", no real signals.

 GLD 5 min chart, after the QE3 highs, a leading negative divergence taking GLD lower, the positive in to the 20th, the negative on the gap up on the 21st and today's chart blah to a bit negative.


 The 10 min chart, distribution after the QE3 highs, accumulation on the 20th, negative on the 21st which breaks above clear resistance and looks like a head fake move and today again, blah to negative.

 15 min chart, exact same story as all of the above, except today's chart doesn't look good at all.

 60 min chart, general deterioration as the trend culminating at the 21st gap up.

And the 4 hour chart has the least detail, but also the least noise. I'll stick with the GLL  gold short for now.

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