Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Nothing Much Changed in AAPL

Basically to this point any way, there isn't anything that would have me thinking about closing the AAPL core short position. With the way things stand now, if anything, I'd be looking to sell or short price strength in AAPL. Believe it or not, AAPL wasn't the first market darling that everyone was in love with and saw a parabolic move up. Anyone remember MSFT?

 AAPL with a parabolic move up on a 7-day chart, these moves are spectacular, but they also have the "Bubble-Effect", the belief that these kinds of gains are sustainable, this time it's different, etc. I think we've seen enough of those moments over the last 12 years that we should be wise enough to know that it's never different, a bubble i a bubble and they all burst.

 Look familiar? That's MSFT.

 And since that parabolic ascent, MSFT lost all hints of being a growth stock, one thing that seemed to kill growth in MSFT was the declaration of a dividend, like AAPL did this year.

 The recent parabolic move in AAPL I have warned about several times in saying, "They usually end badly and sometimes worse than the initial move"; this is a 5-day chart so the IP5 release rally has been retraced.

 The downside momentum i slightly greater than the upside momentum which is typically the case as Fear is stronger than Greed.

 5 min chart which gave a hint of the rally to come before the IP5 release as AAPL's 5 min chart went leading positive, it has gone negative since, but I was waiting and hoping to see a leading negative which showed up yesterday, thus far today hasn't done much of anything that changes what has happened in AAPL.

If there were some strong accumulation we would almost certainly see it on the faster 3 min chart, there's nothing to speak of other than maybe an oversold bounce brewing; this may offer some low risk short entry opportunities if you didn't already start a position.


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